Will Kyle Hendricks fit in the Cubs' 2025 pitching plans?

Sitting at his locker in the hours before throwing the first pitch of Saturday’s 5-1 loss to the Washington Nationals, Kyle Hendricks is something of a living time capsule.

He’s the last member of the 2016 World Series championship team left on the roster. All the others have gone, while Hendricks remains.

As the 2024 season winds down, the question becomes how much longer that will be true. Hendricks made what might be his penultimate start in a Chicago Cubs uniform Saturday afternoon, tossing 5 1/3 innings and giving up four runs. He will almost certainly make one more start when the Cubs return to Wrigley Field for the last weekend of the season, but whether he is still a part of the team come 2025 is tough to gauge.

Given that Hendricks will be a free agent this winter and that the Cubs’ rotation has been the team’s main strength in 2024, there’s a chance he doesn’t fit into their plans for next year.

“It’s nice knowing you kind of have that foundation set,” pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said of his rotation. “I think you’re always looking for ways to improve, whether it’s internal guys stepping up and taking a big [step]. This is going to be a big offseason for a lot of our young internal guys.”

A couple of those young internal guys, Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown, were part of the reason Hendricks moved to the bullpen in the first place — until injuries to both players had him rejoining the rotation in mid-June. Both Brown and Wicks are done for the year — and only pitched a combined 101 1/3 innings — but they are expected to be healthy come spring training.

Along with those two, top pitching prospect Cade Horton is knocking on the door: He finished the year with five starts for Triple-A Iowa and is ranked second in the Cubs’ farm system (though he didn’t pitch after May 29 due to injury). Horton’s 7.50 ERA in those five starts probably indicates he is going to need some additional time at that level, but there is still a chance he is a part of the 2025 pitching landscape at some point. 

And those are just the young pitchers. It’s a challenge to see where Hendricks fits next year’s starting corps with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad, plus the likes of Brown, Wicks and Hayden Wesneski vying for spots in the rotation.

Part of the problem is the Hendricks of old has not made many appearances since 2020, when he posted a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts in the truncated season. In the years since then, he has often struggled and dealt with injuries, so much so that at one point moved to the bullpen for the first time in his career.

Hendricks has looked sharper of late, however. He said after his outing Saturday that he felt like he is “back on track.” Hendricks has a 3.92 ERA in four September starts, and he tossed a one-run quality start against the Colorado Rockies on Sunday.

But those kinds of performances have been harder to find on a consistent basis.

“It’s clearly been up and down for me,” Hendricks said of his 2024 season.

Because of his contract status, it’s fair to wonder not only whether he’ll pitch again for the Cubs but whether he pitches again at all.

Hendricks’ spot in the rotation should line him up to pitch one more time this season, but getting another year in the majors would require someone signing him.

For what it’s worth, Hottovy said he would be surprised if Hendricks decided to retire, and Hendricks himself talked only about the chance to use the winter to keep getting better.

“[I’m] kind of excited just to take a step back, get away from baseball for a minute, refocus, reevaluate where I’m at and make my adjustments and attack this offseason with some motivation,” he said. 

Hendricks has always been a valuable teammate, even when his performance has lagged. The example he sets for some of the younger pitchers who might be taking his place in the near future could be paying off as they work back from injuries.

“When you have a veteran guy, who has had a ton of success, struggle and stay himself, continue to focus and work and come out the other end, it definitely gives guys a lot of confidence that whatever they go through, whatever challenges they may have, there’s ways to work through it and get better,” Hottovy said.

His influence extends beyond the pitching staff.

Patrick Wisdom said when he first came up in 2021, he was struck by Hendricks’ level of focus, so much so that he didn’t want to get in the pitcher’s way and it took some time to work up the nerve to talk to him. But over the years he has shared the clubhouse with Hendricks, Wisdom said the standout quality has been how he carries himself the same way, regardless of the outcomes on the mound.

“Top notch. He’s a pro, through and through,” Wisdom said. “Some of his best games you would never know the next day, some of his worst games you would never know the next day either. Comes in, does his routine. He’s dedicated to his craft.”

The nostalgia attached to Hendricks makes any decision about signing him for another year complicated. Objectively, he has not been the pitcher he was earlier in his career for a few seasons now. But the guy who started the seventh game of the World Series in 2016 and who said he still likes coming into Wrigley on off days just to hang around makes saying goodbye tough.

But the reality is that the Cubs have to get better. They finished 83-79 and a game out of the National League wild card last year. They could end this season with a similar record but will be even further behind in the wild card standings. They were also officially eliminated from postseason contention Saturday.

And that’s not to mention the big gap between them and the Milwaukee Brewers in the division. The most glaring place for improvement is not the pitching staff; the Cubs are 12th in the league in runs scored and rank in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage this season, so they should approach the offseason with an eye on improving the lineup. 

Because the rotation is shaping up as a strength going into ‘25, Hendricks might be bidding the Wrigley faithful farewell when he makes his next start about a week from now. But there’s also a chance that’s not the case; if there’s anything that you can count on when it comes to pitching, it’s that assuming a rotation is set is dangerous.

“In one sense, you feel like you’re in a solid position because we have a number of young pitchers that have started games and, frankly, have had success in the big leagues starting games,” manager Craig Counsell said. “Now, really with all of them, there’s been injuries. It’s not a big sample as of yet, but I think that’s the nature of pitching, and that’s the nature of young pitching.

“We’re in a good spot in terms of that area of depth, but as we saw this year, it disappeared quick.”