Despite the toughest strength of schedule in the league through the first month, a bullpen that is still finding its footing, and the loss of one of their top starting pitchers, the Cubs are winning with regularity. So much so that they are the current easy favorites to win their division. There are a few explanations for why this is the case at this point in the season, but there a couple of primary reasons: The Cubs offense has been scoring nearly at will since the beginning of the season, and their roster depth is holding up to early tests.
With Friday’s 4-0 win over the Phillies, their total runs scored moved to 167 and their run differential to +47. Both good for first in baseball. The offense has been collectively so effective because they are getting production from almost every spot in the lineup. As a group, they have the second highest wins above replacement, according to Fangraphs, and in that metric they trail the Yankees by a tenth of a point.
“Our lineup is executing at a really high level right now,” Craig Counsell said.
He knows as well as anyone that a season comes in ebbs and flows, so an offense that is scoring so well that a four-run win on Friday might feel like a low-scoring game can just as easily run into a cold stretch. It’s also worth pointing out that exactly one year ago, on Saturday, April 27, 2024, the Cubs were 17-10. Just like their current record. A month later, they had dropped to .500.
It’s encouraging that the Cubs have gotten off to such a good start through the first month of this season — most of us would agree that, looking at the schedule in advance, being at or around .500 at this point would be an achievement — but last season’s trajectory should serve as a bit of a cautionary tale against clearing the early October calendar for postseason watch parties.
To some extent, the Cubs’ fortitude has already been tested. Not only have they had to navigate the hardest strength of schedule through the first month of the season, but they have already been tested by injury. There’s the aforementioned Justin Steele season-ending elbow surgery, a major loss that will take some maneuvering to cover his starts for the entirety of the season, but there is also Javier Assad, who experienced a setback in his recovery and is back to square one.
“You need everyone to get you through the season,” Colin Rea said. “It’s a long season, and however guys can step up and contribute to help us win one game at a time, whatever their role or whatever it is. I think we definitely have the guys here to do that [and] step in those roles.”
Rea has been called upon thus far to take a more prominent role in the Cubs rotation with Steele out, and he’s handled that well so far. On Friday, he tossed five scoreless innings against the Phillies, lowering his season ERA to 0.96. Rea was added in the winter for general pitching depth, but the plan going into spring training was for him to be a part of the bullpen. But, of course, Steele’s injury changed that plan.
The bullpen has needed added hands in the early going as well. Ryan Pressly has been unavailable for several days after needing to have his knee drained on Tuesday night. Pressly threw off of the mound at Wrigley on Friday, and Counsell said he is optimistic that his closer could be available sometime during the weekend series against the Phillies.
In the meantime, Porter Hodge and Daniel Palencia have picked up more high-leverage innings, and the Cubs traded with the Mariners for Drew Pomeranz this week to add to their bullpen depth. Pomeranz, who had not pitched in the majors since 2021, made his big league return on Friday and struck out Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber to open up the eighth inning.
Pomeranz debuted in the majors with the Rockies in 2011 as a starter, and the Cubs are the seventh big league team he has made an appearance on the mound for. He has pitched in the postseason for the Red Sox, Brewers, and Padres and has experienced the value and importance of an organization’s roster depth in getting from Opening Day to the playoffs.
“You hear the same thing every spring training,” Pomeranz said. “You know, ‘It’s not just 26 guys.’ No matter what team you’re on, you hear the same spiel. But, you know, it’s a collective group.
“Usually teams that are really good, everyone knows their roles, and they’re really good at taking care of their own role. Piece that together and that’s how you win a lot of games.”
For as much as the first month of the season has tested the Cubs and they are passing, those tests are sure to continue. The Cubs have the easiest strength of schedule going forward after this weekend’s series against the Phillies is over, but there will be slumps and more injuries. Those things are inevitable.
The difference between sitting at 17-10 at this point last year and going on to miss the playoffs and sitting at 17-10 right now and getting to play this October will be how the team navigates the challenges that are yet to come. On that front, Counsell believes his group is well-equipped to handle whatever comes. That readiness he credits in part to the way the Cubs’ season started.
“You go on a journey with your team,” he said. “There’s going to be fun stuff, there’s going to be tough stuff, there’s going to be disappointments. And I think we’ve had a longer journey already, which is the part that I like because we went to Japan early and that was good for our team.
“There’s still a ton to happen, but I do think when you feel like you get the guys connected to each other and sharing similar experiences, that’s a good thing for whatever the future holds.”
