Cubs' Justin Steele gets positive elbow news, but an IL stint is still possible

As soon as Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced postgame Monday that Justin Steele had been scratched from his start Tuesday due to elbow soreness, plenty of questions probably littered the minds of Cubs fans.

“How many starts will he miss?”

“Is his season over?”

“What does this mean for the Cubs the rest of September?”

Fortunately, the initial diagnosis doesn’t sound as grave as some might’ve feared at first.

Speaking to the media before Tuesday’s 5-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Steele felt the results of the MRI were positive. He said the Cubs’ team doctor, Dr. Stephen Gryzlo, determined there was “no severe damage or anything like that. It was just some inflammation that was kind of expected to be seen.”

Steele said the elbow issue was something he’s been managing, and he wasn’t able to pick out a specific date that he first felt it. During his bullpen session in Washington over the weekend, he and Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy could tell something wasn’t right.

The decision was made to get imaging done just figure out what was going on. While the initial results were seen as a positive, Counsell noted the Cubs are “probably halfway through getting all the information” as far as the evaluation of Steele’s elbow.

Steele did say “it was pretty similar, as far as where I was feeling it, what I was feeling and whatnot” to a forearm strain that put him on the shelf for only two weeks in June 2023. Though the Cubs haven’t decided if he’ll need to go on the injured list this time around, they should have more clarity on that once they get a better understanding of how long it might be until Steele can take the mound again.

Still, they’re going to be cautious with one of their top pitchers, not making any rash decisions and choosing to get more opinions for someone whose health is critical for the team’s success beyond 2024.

“I’ve been able to do what I want to do, execute pitches and whatnot,” Steele said, “but it comes to a point where it’s like, how long do you want to continue to pitch through something? How bad can it continue to get if you continue to do so?”

“Justin wants to be out there,” Counsell said. “At the same time, we have to make the right decision for the players, and we’re glad Justin said something. We want to get some answers, and then if the answers are this is going to go away quickly or this is going to resolve or you’re not at risk for hurting yourself, then we feel much better about going out there and pitching.”

Steele is hopeful he’ll be able to play catch Wednesday, which could be a quick step in the right direction. In the grand scheme of things, he made it clear he expects to pitch again this season, regardless of if an IL stint is needed. Counsell echoed that sentiment.

“I think, basically, we’re deciding on how long is it going to take Justin to be able to pitch?” Counsell said. “If we think he can make a start here in five, six days, within a week, then maybe we try to not use the injured list. If it’s going to be more than that, then we use the injured list. Even if the injured list is involved here, it doesn’t rule him out for the season.”

For now, there’s no timetable for his return to action. Regardless of how many turns through the rotation he might miss, potentially losing one of their top starters — who’s put together a 3.09 ERA in his 22 starts this season — hurts the Cubs’ playoff hopes, and they’ll have to figure out how to replace his production for the time being.

Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad have been and will continue to be mainstays in the rotation (assuming health the rest of the way). Jordan Wicks‘ return Sunday after 2 1/2 months on the IL provides some relief. And Tuesday night, the Cubs turned to Kyle Hendricks to take the ball in Steele’s place.

Hendricks hasn’t had the kind of success in 2024 as he had in years past, entering the night with a 6.75 ERA in 24 outings (19 starts). But against the Pirates — who he’d previously posted an 11.12 ERA against in three starts this year — he turned in a solid start, allowing only two runs over five innings.

The offense was the main culprit in the loss, as the lineup couldn’t get the big hit early on, including when the Cubs loaded the bases against Pittsburgh rookie phenom Paul Skenes in each of the first two frames. They weren’t able to come through with two men on in the third, either, and they managed only one more baserunner the rest of the way. That led to them snapping their streak of five consecutive series wins and falling 4 1/2 games back in the National League wild card race.

The Cubs have little margin for error with just 23 games remaining in the season, and Tuesday’s loss dropped their playoff odds on FanGraphs to 1.7 percent.

Again, it’s unclear as of Tuesday night how much longer Steele will have to sit out, if he needs to at all. What is clear is how important he is to the Cubs’ shrinking chances at making the postseason.

“I want to be able to go out there and pitch and not feel anything,” Steele said. “Obviously, we’re in a tight situation with [pushing for the] playoffs and stuff, so I want to get back on the mound as soon as possible.”

“We need him back out there,” Hendricks said. “… We’ve been pitching so good. I think, hopefully, we can make up [for Steele’s potential absence], but obviously, we need him back, and hopefully he can just keep going.”