Cut from a different cloth: The answer for the Chicago Sky has been Chennedy Carter

In a season where the Chicago Sky have been posed an abundance of questions, guard Chennedy Carter has provided a litany of answers, proving to be as prolific as it gets in 2024.

Fireworks and pyrotechnics-galore, she’s lit both a spark in the Chicago Sky offense while at the same time lighting nets on fire.

This all-engaging, spectacle level of play has grown so consistent, that it’s now anticipated and relied upon nightly by her teammates and fans — as well as herself.

Their spacing template in players involved and how defenses react to who is where, for her particular downhill style of play in the halfcourt isn’t the most optimal (though it may have slightly improved with the recent Mabrey trade) with the Chicago Sky at the moment, yet, still being able to slither through the tightest of crevices with her elusive and shifty movement patterns — via a first step that’s also second-to-none — make for a firestarter that’s unique from any other across the entire W.

Prolific: producing in large quantities or with great frequency; highly productive, as defined by dictionary.com.

Dictionary.com

Prolific. It’s a word that’s always stood out and was made more popular by the late great rapper/entrepreneur/mogel, Nipsey Hussle.

For me, it’s been the word that best encapsulates Carter’s game is, and who she is.

Since becoming a starter on June 16, her 21.4 points per game average ranks fourth in the W.

Only 17 players have averaged north of 17 points per game since then.

Her 51.7 percent ranks fifth in that particular group.

From a broader scope, on the season, Carter is fourth in the league with paint points per game, at 11.2 per game.

Zoom in and assess from the lens of Chennedy since becoming a starter, and that number has jumped in weight, to 13.2, and ranks at third best (!) – behind only Aliyah Boston (13.8) and A’ja Wilson (13.5).

In by far the least minutes of anyone (excluding Brittney Griner, due to her returning from injury) in the top 25, it’s downright hilarious that she, with barely over 600 minutes played, is tied for the league best in 2-point and 1’s with A’ja Wilson, at 17 — with a great majority of Carter’s deposits coming in the last three weeks of play prior to the break.

The minutes in mind again, with everyone else in the top-20 essentially at 700+ played, her 42 two-point fouls drawn is tied for 11th most.

Her ranking 20th in free throw attempts garners the same type of attention as the and 1 totals mentioned above, with the rest of the field ahead of her all at 700+ minutes played as well.

Her downhill prowess has been undeniable, and has come mostly via movement:

• In isolation (where she ranks in the 86th percentile for time spent, with a high ranking points per possession mark of 1.051)
• In handoff contexts (where she ranks 70th percentile in the volume of possessions, with a high ranking points per possession mark of 1.093).
• In cutting contexts, she’s at 1.273 points per possession.

In the isolation context, her 41 points compiled ranks just second to Arike Ogunbowale — the league resident Isolation Queen. No one’s spent more time or compiled more points there than she has, since 2019

Carter, however, is within that scoring stratosphere with Ogunbowale while also only having 39 logged possessions, compared to Ogunbowale’s 63.

The Sky’s leading scorer does have a major leg up in efficiency over both Ogunbowale and nearly the rest of the field with a relevant number of isolation possessions compiled.

Of note: isolation is not heavily used in the WNBA. That context applied, 20 players have compiled 15+ possessions there this season. Carter’s 52.9% ranks second. That efficiency grows to first for players with 19 or more possessions, however, the most efficient among the elite, also registering a PPP of 1.051.

She’s mastered the timing and sequencing of when and how to press the gas to get downhill, as weakside defenders’ attention is occupied with an action that involves multiple players.

She also has some scripted isolation play where they flow her off “Iverson screens” from one side to the other and clear the side, or via handoffs that get her a dynamic touch in movement, while stashing a shooter (was Mabrey, will now be Banham) strongside to ensure no help from the corner + clearing the wing to enable her space to operate.

I’ve noted how hard it is to create space in the halfcourt for this team, how teams intend to load in the driving gaps + blocks and elbows when Carter has the ball, and how defense typically reacts to the Sky players within their spacing template — her being on-ball more and finding these pockets to allow the manipulation of space to be an advantage for her in breathing room is important.

Often times, she is even able to see rim attempts without a contest from frontcourt players, as Reese and Cardoso are able to pull x4 and x5 defenders away from the basket momentarily.

Pertaining to transition play, she is tied for the fifth most possessions compiled in this context in the W, with 95. Her points compiled here rank first at 126, 19 points better than second place A’ja Wilson.

Of the 25 players who’ve compiled 50+ possessions in this context this season, her PPP mark of 1.326 ranks second to Kayla McBride.

Carter is shooting an insane 71.6 percent from two in transition, and, though she is the fastest with the ball (or without it), these are not all uncontested layups that she’s taking.

Chennedy fills the lane like a wide receiver running a go or a post, or an Olympian out of the blocks on a 100-meter dash. Then with the ball, she’s like a prime punt returner who doesn’t want to wait for the wedge to develop and can problem-solve on the fly, off shear feel and athleticism — moving at a completely different speed than anyone else on the floor.

Grab-and-go’s, filling a lane, pull-ups — she’s taken the mantle as the best transition scorer in the W.

She also compiled 162 points in just seven games exclusively in July, ranking fourth most. That mark was two points shy of Kelsey Plum’s July total output in scoring.

It’s important to note that she — outpaced by only A’ja Wilson as well as Kahleah Copper, in addition to the aforementioned Plum in July — did not have the help those three had from beyond the arc in terms of shot profile, only having three points come from that scoring level.

She averaged the third most in the paint in July as well, with a dominant 14.9 in the paint a night.

The prolificity, ever-presence, and downright dominance of her scoring both in the paint, as well as in the clutch/fourth quarters has helped to organize and present the Chicago Sky with an identity offensively as an answer to a question that had loomed for them, past just touches for their prized 2024 first-round draft picks.

Speaking to that, since becoming a starter, only Kahleah Copper (31.6%), A’ja Wilson (30.2%), and Sabrina Ionescu (28.5%) have seen more usage than she has (27.9).

Production from their guard group was something I noted ad nauseam before the season’s start, as a barometer for just what both the floor and ceiling for this team would be this season, as well as projecting forward.

In this time transitioning from sixth player to starter in the month of June, to closer in the month of July, Carter has gone from sharing the brut of carrying the Sky guard group to staking a significant claim of the offense in said group — as well as the team.

It’s been just what they needed, particularly from that group, in her assuming that particular role and doing so consistently.

Since becoming a starter, she’s accounted for 36.1% of the Chicago Sky’s offense. That is a mark that ranks most dominant in the W, while only ranking 23rd in minutes played in this window, at 364.

In fourth quarters this season since becoming a starter, Carter has been averaging 4.9 points, which ties for 10th in the WNBA.

Zoom in and look specifically at July, that number grows to 6.6 points on 51.4% from the field. 

Points average in fourth quarters taken into account in July, as well as players who averaged north of three field goal attempts, her field goal percentage ranks fourth, and she’s averaging the second most points of that top-4 (including Kahleah Copper, Caitlin Clark, and Odyssey Simms).

When she begins to receive the whistle that her offensive disposition, downhill-oriented, pressure-applying, and attacking approach should garner, 25 points a night is comfortably feasible.

Even without it, she’s scored the 5th most points at the rim this season, at 213

Since becoming a starter on June 16th, she’s averaging 4.2 trips to the line (T-17).

Even without that dynamic being where it will inevitably grow to, she’s now unquestionably elite both as a guard and generally as a player.

As the context of the team has shifted some, with Mabrey now in Connecticut, I see them leaning more into an inevitable dynamic to develop, which is featuring Carter in more pick-and-roll scenarios with Reese and Cardoso.

Now, this will surely come with need for growth from the latter two in screening, angles, and efficiency playing on the roll — all things they showed a propensity to do on the collegiate stage.

For Carter, however, it’s another context she has shown to be elite in, in her most recent WNBA stint. In 2022 with the Los Angeles Sparks, of the 48 players compiling 100+ possessions in pick-and-roll (including scoring that came from a pass made by her in this context), her score percentage of 46.2 ranked fourth, fouled percentage ranked second, turnover percentage was the best, and points per possession mark of 0.943 ranked 11th — largely due to the absence of the three-point shot in her shot profile.

I spoke briefly about how well she performs (though it wasn’t used much to this point with the Sky) in pick-and-roll, to which, she took it a step further emphasizing her comfort there:

Expect her to be featured more there, and for the team to lean more into it collectively post-break.

In the aforementioned window since she’s been starting, the Texas A&M product has scored the second-most points amongst guards, while also being the only top-24 member with less than three makes from deep.

As it stands, this season, the Sky are 12.3 points per 100 possessions better offensively than when Carter rests — registering an offensive rating of 104.0, operating at a level equivalent to the third most effective in the league.

That rating plummets to 91.7 when she rests, which is on par with the league-worst mark.

Zoom into the clutch, a context of play where the Sky had struggled prior to her ascension, and you see that since she became a starter, no player has played more minutes (29) nor scored more points (27), or been as efficient on high volume of attempts (61.1% on 18 attempts from the floor).

I wrote recently about the clarity in identity she’s provided in the clutch and also did a film session zooming in on the what and why behind why she’s the correct piece in that position, for this team, on my YouTube channel.

She’s the engine that makes this team go offensively, and as they’ve now seen a bit of a context shift with Mabrey now out of the picture, it’ll organically allow for Carter to take on more usage — while also placing a demand for more dynamic usage of Carter, which will likely result in more pick-and-roll play than we saw from the team before the break.

Her comfort to be herself as a decision-maker and player has gone a long way in the clear comfort in dominance she has shown, as I asked her about the relationship with Weatherspoon on media day.

Chennedy Carter & Kysre Gondrezick speaking on what makes Coach Teresa Weatherspoon unique:

Carter: "She's a players coach, she's played before."

Gondrezick: "She's the foundation of this organization right now… She can relate to what it's like to not be chosen first…" pic.twitter.com/r70cQ9gzMp

— Stephen PridGeon ☯️🏁 (@StayTrueSDot3) May 8, 2024

If the Sky had a better record when gauging the league, she’d have been a lock for the All-Star team (and honestly still certainly garnered the recognition, having played at much more than that level).

Regardless, she’s a near lock for an All-WNBA spot should she sustain or improve in play down the stretch and should be the frontrunner for most improved given how well she’s performed and ascended into this role, from training camp invite to elite status across the league.

Theres no better example of just that, than her performance to close the pre-break portion of the schedule, at Las Vegas.

Film Session

Nonetheless, one of the main constants this season has been that when the Sky have had questions, somewhere in the answer Chennedy Carter’s name has equated in presence, dynamic, and impact.