The Chicago Cubs have been searching for ways to improve an offense that went through its dry spells in 2024 and didn’t produce consistently enough to get the ballclub back to the postseason.
Their search has led to a game-changing bat heading to Chicago.
The Cubs struck a deal to acquire three-time All-Star Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros. The package heading to Houston consists of Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith.
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has avoided the notion the team needs a “star” player. Even as recently as Monday during the Winter Meetings, he still discussed the club needing to find “star” production versus just needing to find someone labeled as a “star.”
“To me, a star is about production,” Hoyer said. “… When you think about, like, you need significant production out of individual players. I think that’s how I look at it. I don’t think baseball is the NBA; you can’t just put the ball in a guy’s hands at the end of the game and say, ‘That’s our star. He’s going to take over.’
“It wasn’t that we didn’t have stars [in 2024]. We didn’t have enough consolidation of wins last year. We had a number of players that had good years, but no one had a five-plus-win season that really helped us. … That’s how I kind of view it. If you have a star player, but that guy has a two-win season, it doesn’t help you win.”
Regardless, this move is Hoyer swinging for the fences to acquire a “star” player, especially on the offensive side.
Despite playing just 78 games while he dealt with a right shin fracture, Tucker produced like a star when he was on the field. He posted a 180 wRC+ to go with a .993 OPS and managed to crank out 23 home runs in just 339 plate appearances. Overall, he was worth 4.2 Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs), an impressive mark considering all the time he missed.
Among big league outfielders since 2020, only two other outfielders (Aaron Judge and Juan Soto) have posted a higher fWAR than Tucker’s 20.2. A number of players who earn the “star” label fall below Tucker on the list.
In that same time frame, Tucker didn’t post a wRC+ below 122 in any individual season, nor did he record an OPS below .808. In the three seasons from 2021-23, he didn’t hit fewer than 29 home runs, drive in fewer than 92 runners or record fewer than 4.9 fWAR. That’s a level of consistent production the Cubs just didn’t have during their back-to-back 83-win seasons.
And if you need any more numbers to show you how good Tucker is offensively, consider the fact that, while he’s continued to post better walk and strikeout rates the deeper he’s gotten into his big league career, he actually walked more times than he struck out last season. It’s an all-around great bat the Cubs have injected into their offense.
Tucker, an All-Star in each of the last three years, a Silver Slugger in 2023 and a Gold Glover in right field in 2022, presents the kind of star the Cubs have needed. Hoyer may not have necessarily been looking for a “star” solely based on players who are given that label, but Tucker has earned it by consistently producing at a star level.
There are some risks in making this move, of course. Tucker’s health could be a factor, though the fact he came back in September and hit .365 with a 1.041 OPS in 18 games probably quells any of those concerns. The biggest risk, then, comes with the idea that Cubs may only have Tucker for 2025.
Set to turn 28 years old in January, Tucker is only under team control for one more season (MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $15.8 million in arbitration). That means he could hit free agency, and the Cubs would’ve given up three players with years of team control remaining for what ultimately would be a one-year rental.
It’s possible the Cubs and Tucker can come to terms on an extension, but after seeing the mega-deal Soto just signed with the New York Mets, he may ultimately want to test the market next winter.
But this is the kind of win-now-and-figure-out-the-rest-later move the Cubs felt they were in position to make. At the Winter Meetings, general manager Carter Hawkins discussed the idea of teams trading “future wins” for “current wins” depending on where they were in their cycle of contention. When asked if he felt the Cubs are in a situation where they’re looking “current wins,” he quickly responded with, “That’s correct.”
With that in mind, Tucker became the right player for the Cubs to target to add “current wins” next season. Even if he eventually leaves a year from now, it was the kind of move that can help the Cubs end their playoff drought.
Now, with Tucker in tow, their outlook for 2025 hasn’t gotten a lot brighter.
The package for Tucker
Acquired at the trade deadline, Paredes struggled to adjust when he arrived on the North Side. He recorded just an 86 wRC+ in 52 games with the Cubs versus the 132 wRC+ he posted with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2024. But as an extreme pull hitter, he could fit in well with Houston’s left-field Crawford Boxes.
Without Paredes, the Cubs have an opening at third base. While it’s not clear exactly how they plan to fill that position, it’s quite possible they just cleared a path for their top prospect, Matt Shaw, for Opening Day.
Smith was drafted 14th-overall in July, and he quickly climbed the ladder to finish the season in Double-A. He posted a 1.004 OPS overall on the season. Though he has a lot of potential and could possibly have been the Cubs’ third baseman of the future, their highly-ranked prospects and the depth of their farm system seemingly gave them comfort in trading away Smith, even if his development eventually leads to a successful MLB career.
A Houston native, Wesneski has moved between the bullpen and the rotation over the last two seasons. He was originally acquired via trade in 2022 and made his MLB debut that September, but he didn’t put it all together consistently enough and then missed two months with a right forearm strain last year. His time with the Cubs saw him post a 3.93 ERA in 68 appearances (22 starts).
