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In Stephen King’s memoir, On Writing, published in 2000, he tells a story of his early writing days, when he would collect rejection letters from publishers and stick them through a nail in a wall by his bed. The stack eventually got so thick he had to start on a new nail. After a while, of course, he got his breakthrough when Doubleday published his book Carrie in 1974.
Over their last 47 games, the Chicago Cubs have been stacking losses in a similar fashion while also hoping for their breakthrough.
Coming into this week’s series against the San Francisco Giants, the Cubs had lost nine of their last 10 series. Their only series win was the two-game set on June 4-5 against the Chicago White Sox.
During this 47-game stretch, they’ve gone from eight games above .500 and only a 1/2-game out of first place in the National League Central on April 26 to five games below .500 and sitting at the bottom of their division. The most recent loss, a 7-6 gut punch Monday night against the Giants, dropped the Cubs’ record to 34-39.
Nearly 75 games into the season, they have one of the strongest rotations in baseball — ranked sixth in MLB with a 3.47 ERA — but little else that’s going well. The Cubs have faltered because of either their offense or their bullpen. They had a 27th-ranked .226 team batting average going into Monday’s game, a number that drops to .212 with runners in scoring position. In the last 46 games heading into Monday, their batting average with runners in scoring position has been closer to .170.
“I mean, it’s how you score runs,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Monday. “Ultimately, you have to get hits in big spots.”
Take the fourth inning of Monday’s contest, for example. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner both got two-out singles and Michael Busch walked to load the bases, but Dansby Swanson grounded out to second base to end the scoring threat. The following inning, Patrick Wisdom drew a one-out walk and advanced to third on a hit-and-run with Christopher Morel, only to get thrown out at home trying to score on Cody Bellinger’s flyout to right field. The play at home was close and needed a review, but once again, the Cubs didn’t get the timely hit.
Those did come later, however.
Busch hit a two-run homer in the sixth that gave the Cubs a one-run lead, and Happ hit a three-run shot to left in the seventh that put the Cubs ahead by three. In all, the Cubs went 2-for-4 with runners in scoring position Monday, and they have to hope this is their first step in a better direction offensively.
The offensive struggles were showcased on a larger scale over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals, who only needed six total runs to win two out of three games. The Cubs broke things open a little Saturday, taking a 5-1 lead in the ninth inning, but that was the first time they’ve won by at least four runs since beating the Atlanta Braves 7-1 on May 15.
But Monday, the problem was the bullpen. The Cubs had a 6-3 lead after the seventh inning, but Mark Leiter, Jr. gave up a solo home run in the eighth to make it 6-4, and Héctor Neris blew his fourth save of the season in the ninth.
After a catcher’s interference that put Jorge Soler on base, Neris tried getting Mike Yastrzemski to swing at something that would yield a ground ball and set up a double play. Instead, he walked. Thairo Estrada then put the finishing touch on the Cubs’ latest defeat with a three-run homer.
Monday’s loss was another of a slew of one-run games the Cubs have been in, something that puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen. The starting rotation has done well at putting the team in a position to win, but when the offense struggles to score like it has, the margin for error for the relievers gets smaller and smaller.
“At some level, you end up kind of redlining the bullpen,” Hoyer said. “It’s really hard with our relievers. Every single game, every pitch they throw has been magnified because there’s a one run game.”
One solution to the Cubs’ woes is better offense. But getting that means the current lineup has to produce, because the trade market is not going to open up for several more weeks. At least not unless the Cubs’ front office is willing to pay a premium for a bat.
“It’s incredibly difficult to make those kinds of transactions on June 17,” Hoyer said. “It’s just a matter of how much capital you’re willing to give up prospect wise.”
The Cubs have the prospects, but trying to jump the market early would mean parting with more than a few of them. It’s also tough to get teams interested in trade discussions when most of the league is still in the wild card race. After Monday’s loss, the Cubs were still just two games out of a National League wild card spot, with only the Rockies and Marlins really out of the race. The American League isn’t quite as close, but with the trade deadline still several weeks away, getting a deal done would be a challenge.
The other problem — the bullpen — is trickier to solve. Cubs manager Craig Counsell wouldn’t say whether he would explore other options at closer after Monday’s ninth-inning unraveling.
“Look, we got a bullpen, we gotta find guys to get outs,” he said. “And Héctor’s been a guy that’s been reliable for us, so I wouldn’t anticipate doing that.
“We’re going to always examine the best way to get 27 outs every day, and we’re going to need Héctor to be a part of that.”
Since Carrie, King has published over 50 bestselling novels and had many of those adapted to film. Even the aforementioned On Writing is now regarded as one of the best books on the craft. He gets to tell his story of collecting rejection letters because eventually he stopped needing to. He can look back on the point where the levee of failure broke and his life changed.
As for the Cubs, they keep sticking frustrating losses on their proverbial nail.