White Sox draft preview: Just how important is No. 5 pick to Chris Getz’s rebuilding project?

Not even the people in charge of making the pick know who the selection will be when the Chicago White Sox draft fifth Sunday night.

But they know it’s going to be someone important, someone who could end up playing a big role in determining the fate of Chris Getz’s rebuilding project.

“It’s pivotal,” said Mike Shirley, the White Sox’ amateur scouting director, during a media session Tuesday. “I think we all feel good with what’s happening in the minor leagues. To add this piece, of what (No.) 5 could possibly be, to the next wave of this is substantial. It’s a must.

“I think security has asked me if this is pivotal, all the way to Pedro (Grifol), who told me it’s pivotal. Jerry (Reinsdorf)’s told me it’s pivotal. We all know how pivotal this is to get this right.”

[MORE SOX: In his own words: How Garrett Crochet became an All Star]

Indeed, this strikes as a sizable opportunity for the White Sox to add top talent, something that’s only come along a couple times since Getz took the reins of the franchise’s baseball department last August. He turned Dylan Cease into a trio of prospects in March, and he could infuse the farm system with more well regarded prospects at the trade deadline, should he find a team willing to meet what figure to be steep asking prices for All-Star pitcher Garrett Crochet and MVP-type center fielder Luis Robert Jr.

But outside of those at-this-point-hypothetical trades, the White Sox have a concrete chance Sunday, when they’ll pick fifth in the first round.

Plenty of frustrated fans have focused their White Sox draft commentary on next year, when the league’s anti-tanking rules will prevent the team — on pace to finish with one of the highest single-season loss totals in baseball history — from picking any higher than 10th. And certainly that’s a bummer for an organization trying to engineer the kind of turnaround the Orioles did. Baltimore perennially turned terrible win-loss records into top-of-the-draft picks — it picked in the top five four years in a row, including first twice — and eventually built the best farm system in baseball. The Orioles are now a World Series favorite. But new rules will keep the White Sox from benefiting from last-place finishes in a similar way.

Shirley went as far to call it “not fair,” though he admitted there’s nothing he, as the man in charge of making the picks, can do about it. The good news is that, as someone like Crochet has shown — the big lefty was the top White Sox draft pick in 2020, at No. 11 — you don’t have to be a top-five selection to make a top-level impact.

“At the end of the day, we know where we’re picking next year. It probably will be 10,” Shirley said. “You hope there’s 10 good players. That process has already started, about looking at next year’s draft and getting it right. Yeah, it’s not fair, but it’s out of our control.

“Get No. 5 right. Get No. 10 right. Get every pick right. Get every draft right.”

Of course, Shirley and his team will have to deal with this year’s draft first, and the big opportunity it presents. “Getting it right,” though, is a challenge, not just for the White Sox but for every team with every pick.

Things are way different in baseball’s draft than they are in the more familiar versions in the NFL and NBA. Players are selected for what present-day scouts think they’ll be able to do years down the road, as opposed to in football and basketball, where a top-five pick is expected to immediately be one of his team’s best players. Throw in the financial element — which is huge in baseball, where “signability” and teams looking to spread their draft spending out over multiple rounds impact decisions as much as talent — and it’s hard to predict what will happen at even the very top of the draft.

That’s why Shirley has no problem admitting he has no idea which players will still be around by the time the White Sox draft at No. 5.

“You have to be prepared in multiple directions,” Shirley said. “Even at Pick 5, we have no idea who’s going to go 1. So we are still working on 10 players up there significantly to get ready for this.

“The financial aspect, how the pool works in the draft, is important. … What’s the value of a guy who you think is equivalent who may be a million dollars cheaper, who you can possibly get a deal with? This is something we’re really working hard at.”

Even with all those variables thrown in, it’s obviously about hitting on the player, something the White Sox have had varying success with over the years.

Crochet has been a success story, as were Tim Anderson and Chris Sale before him. But fans are quick to point to top-10 picks like Carson Fulmer, Zack Collins, Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn, who all reached the big leagues but perhaps didn’t live up to expectations. More recent first-rounders like Colson Montgomery and Noah Schultz are ranked as two of the top prospects in the sport and figure to be the centerpieces of Getz’s ongoing rebuild. While plenty can remember back to first-round choices like Jared Mitchell and Courtney Hawkins, who never reached the major leagues at all.

There’s a reason even those in the know talk about the MLB Draft as a crapshoot.

[MORE SOX: White Sox trade rumors tracker]

And so the White Sox have to somehow winnow down that list of 10 players to find Mr. Right on draft night. Certainly, the four teams picking in front of them will help with that, as could financial considerations.

Shirley didn’t list all 10 guys the White Sox are looking at, but he mentioned pitchers Hagen Smith and Chase Burns as being the only two arms that are part of the mix, even though the team prefers to select a position player. Jac Caglianone, a first baseman and left-handed pitcher, visited the team at Guaranteed Rate Field in recent weeks. Past those three names, MLB.com ranks these seven others in its top-10 list: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, Nick Kurtz, Braden Montgomery, Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer.

But the No. 5 slot is just one of many where the White Sox draft next week, and they have plenty of additional early picks, too, with Nos. 43, 68, 78 and 107 in the first four rounds. As most White Sox fans can tell you, finding top talent doesn’t stop after that first-round choice, just ask 38th-rounder Mark Buehrle.

And so, as Shirley mentioned, it’s important for his team to get every pick right, especially for a rebuilding team desperate to bolster its farm system and, through it, its future.

“We’re trying to get as many great shots on goal as we can,” Shirley said. “How many more additional pieces can we add to a puzzle that will make a difference? Our job is to build tomorrow and keep investing in tomorrow so we’re good and get out of some of the space we’re in right now.”

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