Let's talk about three-point shot generation for the Chicago Sky

The Chicago Sky are 4-6 through the first quarter of games on their schedule.

That record puts them in eighth place in the WNBA.

The team is young at its foundation, with tons of new faces in decision-making positions.

Their process involves working through principles and habits on a daily basis, with each game serving as an opportunity to both learn and grow.

It’s not an overnight process. Diligence is required, and where they are in that process aligns with their identity.

The Sky are a team that hits first, and hangs their collective hat on defense.

By my personal assessments, they’re much better on the defensive end of the ball at the moment than the offensive — particularly in the halfcourt.

Chicago ranks fourth in points off turnovers per game (17.9), and third in fast break points (12.8).

They have a middle-of-the-pack defensive rating and take away the three-point line fairly well.

When the game slows down, though, or they can’t generate as many turnovers and are forced to play in the halfcourt, the Sky’s weakness shows.

They’re last in three-point rate, with just 18.4 percent of their offense coming from beyond the arc. They’re last in the percentage of points scored on three-pointers (16.3 percent). On the season, they’re also last in total attempts, with just 149.

The efficiency of those shots is the subplot, with the ability to generate said shots taking precedence.

I mentioned in my piece from last week that Marina Mabrey is in her most important season. She’s responsible for over half of the team’s makes from deep each game (2.5), and nearly half of the attempts (6.7).

She’s often generating said shots herself, excluding opportunities in transition. That’s a heavy toll to carry, and opponents gameplan to take these pockets away from her, which further distorts the Sky’s shot profile.

For full context, they are presently averaging 4.3 three-pointers made, on just 14.9 attempts per game, which both rank last. (The league average is 7.6 makes and 23.1 attempts.)

Aside from banking on their defense creating transition opportunities against an unbalanced or unset defense, there are a few other dynamics of the game that could help the Sky create three-point opportunities.

The first of those dynamics are offensive rebounds, arguably the best chance to generate quality shot attempts.

The Sky rank first in total offensive boards (122), offensive rebounds per game (12.2), and are second in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 31.9 percent of their own misses.

They rank third in total second-chance possessions, per PBPstats, but are eighth in total points on said opportunities.

On said opportunities, they’ve attempted just 19 attempts, which ranks 11th in the W.

Taking more advantage of second chance volume would serve as the perfect opportunity to generate these looks organically, specifically via catch-and-shoot chances.

Chicago can also utilize the opposing attention paid to Marina Mabrey.

I spoke about the increased attention she’s garnered in the last season and some change, and she’s handled it well while still finding other ways to flip the attention into an advantage for her teammates. 

Teams look to shrink the floor and get the ball out of Mabrey’s hands, in terms of taking away her pull-up pockets in pick-and-roll or having help step over the helpline on her post-up and isolation touches.

Her prowess as an efficient shooter and scorer poses a neverending threat.

In that, defensive capital is spent in positioning and putting an extra body in position to execute most defensive game plans.

That means the other three defenders are tasked with covering the other 4 offensive players in space. If and when the Sky nail their spacing principles and force opponents to cover as much court real estate as possible, therein lies the opportunity to get solid shot quality on attempts from deep.

I will also note how important it is and continues to be with how she’s spaced, in respect to primary actions. If there’s an empty corner action taking place, is she spaced off the nail help or spaced off the lowman help? If it is a post up opportunity for Cardoso or Reese, is she the entry passer? Is she spaced to the strong corner to ensure a double doesn’t come from there? Using her as a chess piece to alleviate pressure but also create space for other primary actions to have breathing room is as important as any other dynamic of offense – excluding the topic of this piece, in three-point shot generation.

The last, being the newest addition, are stemming from Kamilla Cardoso post touches. She, not unlike Mabrey, just in an inverted sense, garners the attention of more than just the primary defender when near the paint. Also not unlike Mabrey, she possesses the ability to pass off the attention she garners.

Finding pockets for inside-out passes to get a defense in rotation in her context, not unlike in Mabrey’s, presents the Sky with highly valued catch-and-shoot chances.

Having a blend of these dynamics with these 2 players in these positions as chess pieces, in addition to them taking better advantage of said offensive rebounding volume, in the process, presents them with a great opportunity to chip away at the deficit in three-point attempts that they’re at in respect to the aforementioned league averages.

They have just one game this season north of 20 attempts from deep (which was a win in game two of the season, at Dallas) and have yet to hit the aforementioned league average mark of 23 attempts in a game.

Their roster context is certainly tailored to play at the rim first, and in the paint secondarily, with midrange play after that, but it becomes a true uphill battle with ebbs and flows of the game when the math part of the equation isn’t ever in your favor.

Three-point shooting certainly isn’t everything, however, it can’t be completely forgotten in process with the way the game is played in the evolution of the W, with the uptick in pace and volume of possessions as well as scoring on a per-game basis.

This’ll surely be a valued attribute going forward with their roster construction around their prized first-round picks of the 2024 WNBA Draft, but in the present, especially with those two now firmly starting going forward, the best way to optimize their individual and tandem play inside the arc, will be to solve the three-point shot generation riddle with urgency.

Drive and kick play, off paint touches from their guards is heavily relied on in their process, but with the paint often crowded with the presences they have in the frontcourt in most lineups, it makes for a lot of short-range floaters rather than attempts inside the restricted area via their drives, but also presents them with a snag of sorts in generating three-point attempts from this context of play.

They have been in a ton of close games this season, plenty of which where, in pockets, the lack of three-point shot generation has played into the hands of opponents defensive game plans, as they concede said shots and pack the paint, pack driving lanes, and generally shrink the floor.

It’s a part of their process, one I spoke to early on when the roster + draft picks were assembled (also why I felt the loss of second-round draft pick and sharpshooter Brynna Maxwell due to injury was relevant) which needs to be given grace of course only a quarter through the schedule.

However, I see it as something that will be one of their determining factors as presently constructed this season, as, if they can open up their offense by generating more of these attempts, it’ll benefit their general process in the halfcourt – giving Cardoso and Reese space to operate below the free throw line with a counterpunch when teams collapse on them and get comfortable on the blocks and elbows, in their defensive shell.

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