'I believe in this group': Jed Hoyer still has faith in a Cubs turnaround

Sitting in front of a group of media gathered in the home dugout Tuesday afternoon, Jed Hoyer chuckled a bit when a reporter noted some of the offense’s better performances over the last week.

The Chicago Cubs’ president of baseball operations wasn’t laughing in a bad way, mind you. And the reporter had a point. Starting with a 6-3 extra-inning win on May 28 through Monday, the lineup had seen a bit of an uptick.

In that six-game stretch, they tied for the eighth-most runs scored (29) across baseball (while playing at least one game fewer than four of the teams ahead of them). They scored less than four runs in just one of their six games, and they scored at least six in three. They also posted the eighth-highest OPS (.731) and the ninth-highest wRC+ (111).

Is that a good sign for the offense? Of course. But Hoyer speaks pretty candidly about his team, and he knows it’s been well over a month since the Cubs were consistently performing at a high level offensively. One week of better baseball doesn’t mean things have flipped for good.

“I’m laughing just because it feels like very small victories there. Baby steps,” Hoyer said. “I don’t think we’ve shown the kind of firepower that we need to do. Thursday in Milwaukee we hit three homers, but we need to do a lot more of that. That’s been really such a big part of it. Any kind of power with guys on base, guys in scoring position has not happened. Let’s face it, like, multi-run homers win games.

“Sunday’s game [a 5-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds] was a perfect example. They hit a three-run homer and we didn’t, and they won the game. We need more of that to compete. I think it’ll come. I think that’s for sure, but you need to be able to homer at the right times and you need to be able to score in bunches.”

Almost on queue, the Cubs responded in a big way in Tuesday’s 7-6 win over the crosstown-rival Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field.

After falling behind 5-0, they figured out how to get the big hit that had been eluding them for much of the last few weeks. Christopher Morel hit a two-out, two-run homer to close the gap in the sixth, followed by a game-tying two-run shot from Patrick Wisdom a couple batters later. And in the eighth, with Cody Bellinger and Morel standing on second and first, respectively, Ian Happ delivered the eventual game-winning blow, a two-run double over the right fielder’s head.

That’s two homers at the right time, plus another clutch extra-base hit. That’s three examples of scoring (somewhat) in bunches.

However, it wasn’t all exactly what Hoyer wanted to see. He’s proud that the team has been rallying late in a lot of games, but he also mentioned that it has been struggling to score early against opposing starters. That in turn meant the Cubs weren’t putting pressure on opposing managers to make mid-game decisions, and they weren’t getting “into the bad part of the bullpen.”

The Cubs didn’t do that Tuesday, either, as they were held in check by White Sox starter Chris Flexen (who entered the night holding a 5.50 ERA). They were scoreless through four inning, and had it not been for a 42-minute rain delay, Flexen probably goes longer than 63 pitches in five frames.

Maybe they eventually get to him, maybe they don’t. We’ll never know for sure. But some of the concerning offensive trends Hoyer talked about were still there for the first half of the game. That shouldn’t be forgotten because of a comeback victory.

So, how can the Cubs continue on what looks to be an upward trend for the offense, while also improving some of the areas in which they’re struggling? For now, it doesn’t look like Hoyer is ready to pull the “external help” lever.

“I think we’re early for that,” Hoyer said. “I mean, that’s a fair question. But we’re a third of the way through. Let’s see how we play in June and kind of evaluate that. Of course, we’re always going to talk about external stuff. But I do believe we have the answers internally as far as scoring runs. We just gotta do it.”

There’s not really a realistic scenario where Hoyer decides to sell at the July 30 trade deadline.

Even if things completely bottom out, the Cubs either have players locked up on longer-term, bigger-money contracts, players with no-trade clauses or opt outs, players underperforming (and thus holding minimal trade value) or players still early in their careers they see as contributors for the future. Selling at the deadline doesn’t seem like it would be that worthwhile without strong chips to deal.

But the biggest sign the Cubs are committed to winning and not dealing away major league pieces this season? The way Hoyer talks about things, it seems his perspective on making moves comes more in terms of ways to upgrade the roster.

“You have to believe in that group,” Hoyer said. “We’ve played two months of a six-month season. We’re one-third of the way through the season. One of those months was really good, and four or five weeks have been poor. And so, I think trying to maintain that perspective, I believe we’re going to hit.

“If we don’t, are we going to look at ways to upgrade the team? Of course we will, but it’s not as if this group hasn’t hit, even this year. We just haven’t hit since late April, and we need to get it going. I don’t think there’s any question about that. But I do believe that the structure and bones of a team that was sixth in baseball in run scoring is right there.”

Hoyer’s confidence in the group stems from largely the same offense finishing sixth in runs scored in 2023 and scoring the third-most runs this season (with a 112 wRC+, No. 6 in baseball) through the first game in Boston on April 26.

The team has obviously sunk offensively, which has been a major contributor to them going 13-22 since the last day of that first stretch. They’ve fallen from a 1/2-game back in the division to six back — though they still hold an NL wild card spot entering Wednesday, so they haven’t dug themselves into some sort of hole they can’t get out of.

And again, Hoyer believes the extended rough patch isn’t indicative of how things will go the rest of the season.

“I understand the way the last five weeks have gone,” Hoyer said. “We’ve lost six straight series. We’ve played poor baseball in a lot of ways. I think that’s undeniable. But we’re talking about a team that played really well for the first month of the season, so I do believe that. We’ve already shown that it’s in there. It’s a matter of getting it out. So yeah, I just expect us to play better.”

The season is just over two months old. It’s not only hard to make a big trade at this time of year, and it’s not only too early for the Cubs to panic, but it’s also too early to expect some of the team with offensive trade chips to start selling off already. Some of those teams (the New York Mets, the Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays come to mind) are not yet too far out of the playoff picture and ready trade the season away.

If it gets to the point where the lineup just can’t find consistency and the Cubs need external help, it appears Hoyer is willing to tap into the market. And even if they do find that consistency, he’d likely still be willing to make additions to help them make a run.

But right now, there’s almost two months until making a trade is off the table. Because he’s got faith in the group they have, he’s not rushing to make drastic changes just yet.

“We’re constantly looking to improve our team and talking to people, but I believe in this group,” Hoyer said. “We were sixth in baseball last year in run scoring. This group is a better offensive team than we’ve shown.”