Adbert Alzolay and the Cubs' murky closer situation

Over the last year, Cubs fans got used to seeing Adbert Alzolay’s fist-pump celebration after closing out opponents, so much so that it even earned an endearing nickname on social media: “The People’s Fist.”

But unlike in 2023, Alzolay hasn’t gotten to celebrate as much through the first three weeks of this season.

Saturday afternoon, at the end of Game 1 of the Cubs’ doubleheader against the Marlins, manager Craig Counsell summoned Alzolay from the bullpen. Miami picked up back-to-back two-out singles in the top of the eighth, and with a right-handed batter due up, Counsell turned to his reliever to get the four-out save.

After walking the first hitter he faced, Alzolay forced a rally-ending lineout to left field, keeping the Cubs ahead by a run. When the offense failed to add to the lead in the bottom of the inning, Alzolay came back out to finish the Marlins off.

He got a groundout to start the inning, but he then walked Miami’s Luis Arraez as the lineup turned over. And then, after falling behind in the count, 2-0, against Miami’s Bryan De La Cruz, his 94.9 mph inside sinker caught too much of the plate, and De La Cruz made him pay.

The two-run shot gave the Marlins the lead, in turn giving Alzolay his fourth blown save in just seven opportunities this season. The Cubs went on to lose 3-2 as he personally fell to 1-2 on the season.

A pretty clear trend had emerged for Alzolay in his appearances that have gone sideways.

In each of his three blown saves prior to Saturday, the game-tying or go-ahead runs came on homers. In fact, all three of the runs previously charged to him were the result of the long balls in those three games; he’d otherwise not allowed a run.

Last season, he emerged as a dependable closer for the Cubs. Though he missed most of September with a right forearm strain, he still converted 22 of 25 save opportunities, not reaching his third blown save until that 25th opportunity. This year, he recorded his third blown save Tuesday in Arizona — in what was only his sixth opportunity of the season.

“He’s just giving up homers,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Friday morning. “That’s been the challenge. Obviously, he’s had some really good outings, but certainly, three different times he’s given up homers. Getting him to, I don’t want to say ‘execute,’ but I think some of those pitches are in the zone, and they should be below the zone.”

With the two-run shot by De La Cruz, Alzolay has now been charged with 10 hits and five runs (all earned) in just 10 innings. All five of those runs have come on homers, leading to a league-leading four blown saves (as of the end of Game 1 Saturday).

“It’s just not keeping the ball in the park,” Counsell said. “Obviously, the home run for the closer in tight situations is going to hurt you, and it hurt us today.”

So, where do the Cubs go from here?

After the Game 1 loss, Alzolay is giving up 3.60 HR/9, which would be far and away a career high. He’s also got just a 21.4 percent strikeout rate, which would be a career-worst mark across a full season, too.

The Cubs are surely hoping for some positive regression in those areas, but it might continue to cost them games as they wait for that to occur. It could be best for all parties to take Alzolay out of the closer role for the time being, giving him chances to reset in lower-leverage situations.

Even then, Counsell’s options behind Alzolay appear to be limited, particularly with Julian Merryweather on the 60-day injured list with a rib stress fracture in his back.

Héctor Neris would seem to be the next man up, as he’s saved 89 games across 10 seasons before joining the Cubs this year. But he’s had his own struggles to begin the year.

Heading into Saturday, he was posting a 4.50 ERA, and he was striking out and walking batters at career-worst marks. His track record of success should provide confidence that he can get back on track, but until he can do that in a non-closer role, it might be tough to trust him with the ball in save opportunities.

Mark Leiter Jr. is another option. He’s been the Cubs’ best reliever this season, allowing no earned runs through 10 2/3 innings through Game 1 on Saturday.

But while he could be effective as a closer, too, he’s been a reliable option in multiple different situations since last year — especially against left-handed pockets. Moving him to the ninth inning would mean losing a trusted arm who can be deployed at any point in any game.

It’s unclear if Counsell is actually leaning toward going with another option, but Alzolay’s status as the closer has certainly come into question.

But regardless of his role, the Cubs need him to get outs. Closer or not, Alzolay has to perform when the Cubs call on him.

“We need Adbert to get outs,” Counsell said. “Regardless of where it is, we need Adbert to be an effective member of the bullpen. I strongly believe that he will be.

“We need outs. Where they come in the game, it obviously stings when it comes at the end of the game there, but we need outs. And Adbert’s going to get us big outs this year.”

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