Breaking down the Cubs' 9th inning in the loss to the Reds

Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell doesn’t necessarily buy into the idea that flipping the calendar to a new month can suddenly make things better.

People in baseball talk about it all the time: You have a bad month, but once a new month starts, you can put that bad month behind and start fresh.

Of course, things don’t really flip that easily. A new month doesn’t mean anything changes about the way you’ve been playing. Teams have to figure out how to get back on track themselves, regardless of what the date is.

Still, turning the page to a new month can present a placebo effect of sorts.

“I do feel a little better waking up and writing June 1,” Counsell said pregame Friday. “Like, “Oh, this is a reason to feel better,” but I’m kind of lying to myself. But we all do that, right?”

Perhaps waking up Saturday morning and seeing it’s June 1 will help after how the Cubs ended May, presenting a new, even more painful way to lose a ballgame.

It was a relatively unremarkable contest until the bottom of the ninth, which the Cubs entered down two to the Cincinnati Reds. That’s when the drama started.

Let’s break down the key moments in the inning that ultimately resulted in a 5-4 Cubs loss at Wrigley Field.

The pinch-hit decision

To begin the inning, the Cubs got a base hit from Pete Crow-Armstrong and a walk from Michael Busch off Reds closer Alexis Díaz. That set up a two-on, nobody out situation for Patrick Wisdom, who’d come in to pinch hit in the seventh.

Wisdom, though, has had much more success against left-handed hitters this season. Instead of seeing the slugger could get ahold of one against the right-handed Díaz, Counsell elected to pinch hit Nick Madrigal.

Was it the right call, especially considering Madrigal’s ground-ball rate coming into Friday (60.0 percent) was fifth-highest among hitters with at least 90 plate appearance, in a situation where a double play would feel like a killer? We’ll never know what Wisdom would’ve done had he remained in the game, but Counsell felt this move — Madrigal does have the eighth-highest contact rate (89.1 percent) in that same group — was the right move for the Cubs.

“In my eyes, it was just a tough matchup for Patrick and just a better matchup for Nick,” Counsell said.

The hit-by-pitch no call

After taking ball one to start his at-bat, Madrigal was seemingly hit in the hand with a fastball up and in. He said he felt it hit his hand, causing him to drop the bat, and then he began to head to first base before home-plate umpire Brennan Miller told him to stay put.

“It all happened so fast,” Madrigal said. “You can’t really tell in the moment whether it hit your hand or where, but I definitely felt it get me, and then watching the replay it kind of confirmed that it got it. It wasn’t 100 percent on the hand. I felt like it got me.”

Counsell emerged from the dugout to argue the call, which led to his second ejection as Cubs manager.

“Whatever the call on the field for that play is … replay is not going to change the call, because it hits some of your hand, hits some of the bat, and so the call is — you can’t tell,” Counsell said. “It’s too hard for replay to tell. It’s just too hard to tell. It’s too hard to overturn it. So, the call on the field is what matters. Nick made a clear sign that he got hit, and [Miller] said it hit the bat. And I knew once they called it a foul ball that it wasn’t going to change.”

A “confirmed” announcement was made after replay review. Madrigal then had to finish his at-bat, results in a fielder’s choice out at second base, setting up a one-out, runners-at-the-corners situation for Seiya Suzuki.

The send

Suzuki roped a double down the left-field line, which brought in Crow-Armstrong from third easily. Madrigal motored around the bases, and Cubs third-base coach Willie Harris waved him home.

Harris said he knew Reds left fielder Jacob Hurtubise’s arm strength wasn’t “plus-plus,” so he took a chance on trying to score a run and tie the ballgame with Madrigal (who’s sprint speed is in the 58th percentile, per Statcast). However, Hurtubise made a nice play in cutting the ball off down the line before it could bounce into the corner, and he made the throw right to Cincinnati shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who’s arm strength (per Statcast) is in the 91st percentile.

De La Cruz fired the ball on the money to Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson, who applied the tag on Madrigal short of home plate.

“I took a chance on trying to score right there,” Harris said. “It didn’t work out for us, unfortunately, for me and for the team. But you have to be aggressive. You have to try to score runs.”

Knowing the outcome, would Harris do the same thing if given a second opportunity?

“Well, after the fact, no I wouldn’t do it,” he said. “But we all learn as we go. We all learn from our mistakes, and moving forward, I’ll be better than that. I think I’ve been doing a pretty good job as the year has gone on so far, but today, it was just a bad send. I mean, he was out and today’s on me, and hopefully, the guys pick me up tomorrow.”

In talking through the play, Harris did say he felt the Reds would walk Cody Bellinger in the next plate appearance. That would’ve set up a bases-loaded, one-out situation, but with force plays everywhere, for Christopher Morel.

Of course, the Cubs would take that over what actually happened. And instead of tying up the game, or perhaps giving the Cubs a walk-off homer, Bellinger flew out to end the rally.

“Look, Willie has been fantastic, and his aggressiveness has got us a lot of runs this year,” Counsell said. “It didn’t work this time.”

“The only way you win is if you score runs, right? And sometimes, this is the major leagues, guys make plays,” Harris said. “Today, they made a play on us. Moving forward, I’ll be less aggressive with one out knowing the situation a little bit better, but today, it’s on me. And I know those guys in the clubhouse, they know me, they know I’m for them, and they’ll pick me up tomorrow.”

A new month for the Cubs

Yeah, the Cubs would probably like to put May behind them.

They entered the month 18-12 and a 1/2-game out of first place. They’ve gone 10-18 since (now 28-30) and have fallen to third place, closer to the bottom of the standings than the top in terms of win-loss record. They’re currently on a 4-13 stretch in their last 17 games.

The Cubs have seen turnarounds happen, even as recently as last season, so all hope isn’t lost. But they can’t let their May struggles follow them much longer, or else June won’t be much easier of a month to stomach.

Perhaps that placebo effect will come even more in handy now.