The Chicago Blackhawks should not trade Ryan Donato…unless

Friday night, Blackhawks forward Ryan Donato had a four-point night in Chicago’s 6-2 win over the Nashville Predators, scoring his team-leading 17th and 18th goals of the season while adding a pair of assists. The pending unrestricted free agent is enjoying a career year, yet seems destined to be on another team by the March 7th trade deadline.

Career-high 17th goal of the season for Ryan Donato!pic.twitter.com/vEB0xFUMP6

— CHGO Blackhawks (@CHGO_Blackhawks) February 8, 2025

I’ve been on the extend Donato train for some time and haven’t backed off. Yes, I understand the Blackhawks are still early in their rebuild, but I feel Donato provides more value to the organization than any third-round or even late second-round pick would bring.

Last month, Jacob Billington of The Hockey Writers did a great research piece on the success rates of draft picks. The expected trade return for Donato is expected to be a second or third-round pick. Assuming the team trading for Donato would be a team in contention, the pick would be in the second half of either round.

According to Billington, second-round picks reach the NHL 68% of the time, but fewer than 40% play 100+ NHL games. 25.1% player 300+ NHL games.

Third-rounders, predictably, have an even lower chance of success.

Only 52.5% even reach the NHL, while 28.2% play 100+ games, and only 16.9% play 300+ NHL games.

What are the odds that one of these picks turned into a player or Donato’s caliber? Only 21.4% of second-round picks produce 100 points or more in the NHL. For third-rounders, it’s 13.4%.

Donato is on a 56-point pace this season, and while those numbers are career highs, it’s not as if offense is all he brings to the table. He can play center or wing and up and down the lineup. He’s one of the hardest-working players on the team. Even if his production dips, which could be expected as more and more Blackhawks prospects push him out of the top six, he would provide value in any role. As Eddie Olczyk used to say, “Accept your role and execute.”

No one has displayed that mindset more than Donato.

Ryan Donato belt pic.twitter.com/7fGCogcpyv

— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) February 8, 2025

Trading him for anything less than a second-round pick sends a message to his teammates that doing everything right isn’t enough and that a lottery scratch-off ticket is more valuable to the organization than a heart-and-soul player. GM Kyle Davidson should set his price. If it’s not met, sign Donato to an extension on March 8th.

Of course, we have not yet considered what Donato wants. Is he seeking stability? His wife just had a baby in September, and staying settled in Chicago might be tempting. Perhaps Donato has already informed Davidson that he wants to hit the open market and find the best deal for himself.

Either way, he couldn’t have timed his career year better.

Whatever happens, Donato has left his mark on this team. I hope his dedication to Chicago gets rewarded.