CHGO Digest: How far off are the Bears from competing in the NFC North?

Good morning, friends!

Look around the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings are 14-2 with Sam Darnold. The Packers are a playoff team at 11-5 with Jordan Love. The Lions and Jared Goff control their destiny for the No. 1 seed.

Then there’s the Bears, who are on their way to a season-ending (and defining) 11-game skid with the No. 1 pick from last year’s draft. Caleb Williams is still having a historic season by Chicago’s standards, but they’ll finish the season with either four or five wins as a result.

This was supposed to be one of the best situations a top pick had ever entered. Instead, the rookie has been sacked 67 times in 16 games, fourth-most in a single season in NFL history. He’s been pressured 230 times. The weaponry might look better if Williams wasn’t running for his life once every 2.8 dropbacks.

Anyway, I’m writing this while watching the ending to the Vikings-Packers game and it just doesn’t feel like Chicago is even in the same universe right now. How many of us projected the Bears to be in the playoff picture with hopes of Week 18 at Lambeau actually meaning something? We should’ve known better.

— Patrick Norton

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How hot is Ryan Poles’ seat?

Remember when Kevin Warren emphatically told reporters, “I want to make sure we are clear [that] Ryan Poles is the general manager of the Chicago Bears and he will remain the general manager of the Chicago Bears” and even said Poles would have final say on the permanent head coaching hire? That press conference feels like an eternity ago.

Now, over the course of the next week, and with interim head coach Thomas Brown’s fate all but sealed after beginning his five-game stint as interim 0-4, the conversation shifts to Poles’ job security, which feels more in doubt than four weeks ago.

Poles couldn’t have been expected to do much of anything to improve the team after firing Eberflus on November 29, but it’s how the team has seemingly gotten worse in the ex-head coach’s absence. Sure, there wasn’t a realistic expectation that Brown would miraculously right the ship and lead the Bears back into the hunt. However, losses of 38-13, 30-12, 34-17 and 6-3 is far worse than most pessimists could’ve predicted.

On Friday’s Hoge & Jahns podcast, the pair raised an interesting point I hadn’t really thought of yet: look at Poles’ third-round picks.

2024: Kiran Amegadjie
2023: Zacch Pickens
2022: Velus Jones Jr.

In Week 17, Amegadjie didn’t receive any snaps behind Larry Borom, despite the Bears’ line allowing seven sacks. Pickens was a healthy scratch and Jones Jr. is with the Carolina Panthers.

Warren isn’t firing Poles next week because of a few draft misses, but it would have been nice to have hit on some of those selections, and it makes using a fourth-rounder on Tory Taylor this past draft a little tougher to swallow, even if Taylor is fourth in the league this season with 36 pins inside the 20.

But, again, let’s look around the NFC North and their recent third-round selections.

Detroit Lions (GM Brad Holmes):

2024: Didn’t have a pick.
2023: QB Hendon Hooker, DT Brodric Martin
2022: DB Kerby Joseph

Hooker hasn’t had to play much thanks to Jared Goff’s success since coming to Detroit in 2021, and Martin has only played 53 snaps in two seasons. But Kerby Joseph has been an integral part of the Lions’ secondary. That’s one key hit.

Minnesota Vikings (GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah):

2024: Didn’t have a pick.
2023: CB Mekhi Blackmon
2022: LB Brian Asamoah

Blackmon tore his ACL in the first training camp session of 2024 and Asamoah is primarily a special-teamer.

Green Bay Packers (GM Brian Gutekunst):

2024: RB MarShawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper
2023: TE Tucker Kraft
2022: OL Sean Ryhan

Lloyd has only seen action in one game and has dealt with injuries throughout his rookie season. Green Bay also signed Josh Jacobs in the offseason, so Lloyd wasn’t likely to carry a major role in his first year out of college. Hopper has played 50% of the team’s special reps. Then you have Kraft and Ryhan, a pair of starters in Green Bay’s offense – two key guys.

Not 100%, but it doesn’t have to be when the rest of the team is playoff caliber. Third rounders are valuable draft slots, and Poles is 0/3 in three tries. Again, Kevin Warren won’t look at this and decide to part with Poles based on a handful of picks. But Poles’ struggles haven’t been concealed by Caleb Williams’ play, either. Instead, it’s at the forefront as the Bears limp to the finish line of another abysmal season.

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