Welcome back, Cubs fans!

There are still over three weeks until the Cubs open the season in Texas on March 28. If you consider spring training still as part of the “offseason,” well, then there’s still a good amount of offseason left.

But what does that entail for the Cubs? Is their offseason over? And when I ask that, what I’m really trying to ask is, are there any more moves to be made for the Cubs before Opening Day arrives?

Before I answer that, let me fill you in on a little Diehard-exclusive secret: Jared Wyllys and I have put together a database of every player currently on the Cubs’ 40-man roster with recaps of their 2023 seasons and previews of the 2024 seasons. From prospects you might not know as well to the biggest names on the roster, we have the info for every 40-man guy.

It’ll soon be updated with even more players in the organization, including guys around on spring training invites, some of the top non-40-man prospects and more. It’ll be something Diehards can look back to when a name you don’t know pops up on your radar, so don’t miss out!

OK, back to the topic.

Are the Cubs done making additions? If you paid attention to Cody Bellinger’s re-introductory press conference last week, the simple answer is probably a yes. Here’s what Jed Hoyer, the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, had to say when he was asked then if this is the team going forward:

“I think that’d be the expectation. Obviously, we’re never gonna stop looking. I never put a final nail in that, because I think that things come up all the time — trades, free agents. But certainly, it’s the 28th of February, so I think that’s the expectation, though I would never rule anything out is kind of how I would phrase it.”

So yeah, not ruling it out, but seems unlikely. Still, I think it’s worth considering part of why that’s his stance at this point.

I mean, Hoyer had super-agent Scott Boras sitting on the other end of the table from him during that press conference. Boras, as we know, still has some clients in the market (Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, JD Martinez) who would fit in pretty well on this roster. They’re veterans who you’d think would be upgrades the Cubs would want.

But you have to consider the competitive balance tax and the team’s distance either below or above it. Just look at last season. With the Cubs in the middle of a playoff push, a bigger trade deadline haul might’ve gotten them to the finish line. However, they were also toeing the line of that first tax threshold (which was $233 million).

That meant for every move they even considered making, they also had to consider factors like Cody Bellinger’s bonus for winning Comeback Player of the Year, bonuses in players’ contracts, the potential need to add a player to the 40-man roster, and more.

They could’ve just blown past the line at the deadline, but that wasn’t the route they picked. So, they had to make sure they were under enough to leave room in case some of those other things happened. Because a really rough scenario, considering they didn’t want to go over and start the luxury-tax clock (you can read more about the year-over-year increasing tax rate here), would’ve been ending up just slightly over, starting that clock a year before they wanted to anyway. That seems to be why they didn’t do more at the deadline.

So, back to this season. FanGraphs’ RosterResource estimates the Cubs currently at roughly $235.7 million in luxury-tax payroll, with the first tax threshold at $237 million. If you also consider extra expenses that might have to be paid over the course of the season (which teams do), then that number is probably at least a bit higher.

The Cubs are gunning for the playoffs, so they won’t be trying to keep wiggle room under the first threshold again. But we also know penalties increase the further you go over that threshold. Adding one of those Boras clients likely makes their number rise significantly, putting them closer to the second threshold and potentially limiting their flexibility to make in-season moves.

I’m not saying I agree with that — we know the Cubs have the resources to stomach paying more to the tax — but that’s just how these things go. So, all of that makes me lean toward the Cubs being done making moves before the season. On top of actually liking the roster they have now, they probably want to keep that financial flexibility for later transactions.

If a deal they can’t pass up presents itself, I do believe the Cubs would go for it. But other than that, I’m not expecting new faces on the roster before Opening Day.

Enjoy the rest of your week, Diehards. We’ll catch you next time.

PS — A friendly reminder that this newsletter will be a Diehard exclusive during the regular season. Sign up now to ensure they’ll keep coming plus get access to our 2024 CHGO Cubs season guide and your choice of a CHGO t-shirt, including the ones in our new Chicago collection!

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