Atlanta win shows that Chennedy Carter can be a prolific closer for the Sky

Chennedy Carter can be the prolific closer for the Chicago Sky in the 2024 season.

The team has spent a lot of time in games deemed as having entered the “clutch” this season. “Clutch” is defined as a game in the final five minutes, with a scoring margin within five points.

With that in mind, the Sky have the margin closest to neutral as any team in the league, with a +/- of -1.4, meaning that a good majority of their games have been played in a tight window.

The Sky has compiled the second-most clutch games this season, with 13, but have a record of 4-9 in said games — a win percentage of 30.8 that ranks second to last in the W.

It speaks to the bouts of inconsistencies that they’ve seen at untimely moments, as well as their general lack of execution when engaging in closely played games.

Most of it, however, stems from their lack of identity in said moments. Rather than knowing who they wanted to go to, how they wanted to get to said player, and the advantages they wanted to create in said action, it seemed to be a lot more guessing in a sense as to what to do, when, and how.

A very intriguing and potentially organizing development took place in Tuesday’s win on the road over Atlanta.

Carter, who’s spent the last six games in the starting lineup, accounted for 11 of her team’s 19 fourth-quarter points.

Game tied at 72 both entering the final five minutes, triggering another clutch scenario for the Sky, and remaining tied entering the final three minutes of the game, Carter would account for nine of the team’s 13 final points scored, to stamp the eventual eight-point win.

They’ve needed someone to take the reins of play in these waning moments, and, as with many challenges the team has seen this season, Carter’s stepped up to the plate, exhibiting an elite level of time on task ability.

Carter is now top-10 in total points scored in the clutch this season.

Of the 11 players who’ve amassed at least 22 points in the clutch this season, Carter has played the fewest minutes in this game context (26 minutes) and has taken the third least shots (12 field goal attempts).

That being known now, it should make the fact that she’s tied for second in field goals made (10), has the second highest field goal percentage (83.3), and has the least turnovers of this group (1), that much more intriguing.

She’s also third in +/- in these scenarios for players averaging as many points in clutch scenarios as she is (2.8) at +2.0.

I spoke about the growths that developed with her through June, those have grown tenfold with her now being a starter.

Let’s dive into the film to add visual context to what’s being spoken on, stemming from their win on Tuesday in Atlanta.

First, we’ll be seeing her patience, which I’ve spoken to plenty of as she’s not only solid in reading a defense for herself, but also doing so for others.

Notice as she comes off the screen from Reese, the assessing of the help in the paint, engaging it, then the extra dribble to hold their attention, before the kick to DeShields who deposits three to tie the game.

Carter being able to initiate offense as the ever-present paint touch threat that she is with her all-important drives, is perfect at the helm for them in the clutch.

That threat plus the selflessness and ability to not just read but counter with passing on what she’s processing, is all-important.

This is where it gets fun.

I’ve spoken ad nauseam this season about the need for the Sky to more frequently feature quick hitters to get Carter dynamic touches (on the move) and downhill.

Typically in their guard-guard actions, she’s receiving the ball, rather than initiating play.

So now, since she is initiating, they’re looking to get a reaction at the mesh point of the defense, to then play off.

DeShields enters the action, then “ghosts” the screen on-ball (faking the screen and then relocating as they exchange space).

DeShields’ matchup, Coffey, is now in conflict as she wants to help on-ball, but also can’t stay for too long as they’re not switching at this moment.

I emphasized Carter’s patience last play, here we see it again as soon as Coffey releases on the momentary double, Carter is immediately downhill into the floater.

Want also to salute Cardoso’s re-spacing from the strong block, as the slightest of reverting from Charles enables a pocket for Carter to navigate into, for the finish.

The beauty of Carter on-ball is that, though screens and handoffs enabling dynamic touches for her have great value, she’s also a player who doesn’t need a screen or handoff to get downhill, and can do so with minimal dribbles, even more.

That allows the Sky to go 1-4 flat here in enabling Carter space without defenders loaded in the gaps, and look at the creativity in pace changes, into the finish.

Notice also the subtle restacking of Gray after the blow-by, to keep leverage and eliminate the rear view contest, then the extended arm finish.

The major factor with Carter is, for all the prolificity of Chennedy offensively, she’s certainly no slouch defensively.

On the season, the Sky are 1.73 points per 100 possessions better when she’s on the floor, than when she’s off.

It’s her tenacity in screen navigation and ability to pressure the ball in space, while remaining able to slide and contain to keep her help from being engaged — keeping their defensive shell intact.

We see just that here as she pressures, contains, then keeps Gray from her strong hand, before poking the ball free and garnering another possession for the Sky.

Lastly, as the nail in the coffin following her defensive stop, we see now the screen being set by DeShields, inducing the switch.

Coffey misses on keeping Carter from turning the corner, and we see Carter’s elusiveness on-ball on display now, as she snakes back middle when Charles steps up in rim protection, then veers right into a pull-up pocket.

Film Session

Carter being elite with drives allows the Sky to dictate to opponents from the onset of possessions late. That ever-presence holds the defense to account in a different way.

Not just drives, but the ability to score on efficiency from the paint as a guard (eighth in the league in points in the paint at 10.1 — most among guards), as well as the ability to pass in said actions as shown early, hits differently.

Put that in tandem with the Sky also being 15.9 points per 100 possessions better when she’s on the floor offensively (a rating of 105.8 — equivalent of third in the W — and you see even more the value of her having the ball in her hands has, how she helps to organize their half-court play and can be leaned into plenty more for usage late.

She has pick-and-roll chemistry with their frontcourt pieces as well, which is also highly valued for late-game play.

All of these dynamics in play lead up to Carter being the player with the ball in her hands in these clutch scenarios, to score or set the table for others, helping organize and give the Sky an identity to lean into in said scenarios.

Carter’s shot profile and ability to play inside-out as a guard put her in the perfect position to to be the master string-puller for the Sky, capable of converting from at the rim, in the midrange, and via self-created play — on efficiency.

As is the theme for this season in many respects for the Sky, Chennedy’s buy-in with the Sky is in direct alignment with the Sky buying into her — thoroughly.

Having an identified closer will expedite their process in execution in these scenarios, and enable them to unlock new dynamics for the opportunities ahead in closing games.

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