As the calendar year comes to a close, it’s a time to reflect on the 2024 portion of the 2024-25 season and look forward to ’25.

Based on the start to the season, the Chicago Bulls’ 2025 looks like a scary place to be.

It was always improbable that the front office’s plan to get out of the lower-middle class would succeed. Finishing 2024 ninth in the East and 11th in the tankathon standings should have been more predictable because the Bulls never committed to a direction.

At his Media Day availability, EVP of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas didn’t commit to a goal of making the Playoffs. Coming off a second consecutive Play-In exit, he didn’t commit to a goal of keeping his top-10 protected draft pick. Instead, he wanted to “try to win every game” and develop the young players without sacrificing “the integrity of the game.”

When asked for concrete steps on returning to contention, Karnisovas wouldn’t share a plan. The only thing he vowed was to bring home court advantage back to the United Center. The Bulls are 5-11 at home and 10-7 on the road.

After an overtime win against the Charlotte Hornets on the road, the Bulls are now 15-18 overall. They’re not on pace to make the Playoffs nor to keep their top-10 protected pick. They haven’t sold high on any of their veterans and their young players haven’t taken meaningful steps forward.

What success they’ve have had this season is being driven not by young players, but by the veterans who have not so secretly been stale on the trade block. Only three players have positive Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) figures this season: Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine and Torrey Craig.

The Bulls have already won too many games to have a legitimate shot at a top pick. Even with LaVine and Vucevic having career-years, the Bulls’ -3.3 net rating indicates they are over-performing, even as the 9th seed in a weak Eastern Conference.

The young veterans around whom Karnisovas was building have not shown marked growth. Patrick Williams is still averaging 10 points per game. The Bulls can’t run any offense through him and his defense has taken a step back from previous seasons.

Coby White has shaken off a cold-shooting slump, but he hasn’t taken a step forward that would indicate an ability to become the franchise cornerstone the team desperately needs. The Josh Giddey experience has had its ups and downs, but he isn’t a top player on a title team either. Ayo Dosunmu, who has been out with a calf strain, remains a very solid role player. Julian Phillips and Dalen Terry are back-end rotation players.

Matas Buzelis hasn’t gotten enough opportunity to develop much at all. He played 10 minutes against the Hornets and has accumulated only 404 minutes this season, 18th among rookies. The flashes have been exciting, but he’s raw, and it’s hard to show signs from the bench.

If wins were really the priority, LaVine and Vucevic shouldn’t be on the trade block. Craig and Jevon Carter should be getting minutes over Phillips and Terry. Craig, who has played ten or more minutes in only six games this season and been a DNP-CD in 21, had 18 points on 6-of-10 shooting against the Hornets. Carter had 26 on 9-of-15 shooting off the bench last week against the Atlanta Hawks.

If their goal was to retain their draft pick, they’ve already missed the boat to get into the bottom-six where they would guarantee keeping their pick and give themselves a real shot at the top spot in the draft. If the lottery went chalk, they’d be giving the 11th pick to the San Antonio Spurs.

If their goal was to get something of value for the likes of Lonzo Ball, Vucevic, and LaVine, they shouldn’t expect much. As well as they have played, and as great as it is to see Ball back on an NBA court, the marketplace is not flush with first round picks. Dennis Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith — valuable role players on more manageable contracts — went for expiring salary and second round picks.

The Bulls wanted young players to pop without fully committing to player development. They wanted a top pick without bottoming out. They wanted to showcase and sell high on their veterans without winning too many games to develop and keep the pick.

It was always going to be unlikely to successfully straddle that fine line. If they would have focused on any single one of those tasks, maybe they could have gotten something done. Instead, they find themselves in the one and only place they absolutely needed to avoid.

In 2025, move past denial and anger that they haven’t left the middle. Move past bargaining for lottery balls and depression that they’re on pace to lose the pick.

Instead, let 2025 be the year of acceptance: in trying to accomplish everything, the Bulls made it impossible to accomplish anything.