The NBA Draft is just around the corner and there are still a lot of questions surrounding this class. Two weeks out, here is the first version of my mock draft, including who the Chicago Bulls select at 11, analysis and explanation for the lottery picks, plus my favorite fits in the back half of the draft.
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Lottery Picks Analysis
- Atlanta Hawks: Alex Sarr is the best prospect in the class. A long, switchable, athletic big who can slide between the four and the five. His offense is a ways off from his defense, which projects to provide an immediate impact, but there’s upside there too.
- Washington Wizards: I’ve had Nikola Topic as the number two prospect for the entirety of this pre-draft process, but the news of his partial ACL tear drops him down on draft night. Instead, the Wizards take a swing on the player with the most upside to be a star wing in Ron Holland.
- Houston Rockets: I expect the Rockets to shop this pick, but if they are unable to move it, Reed Sheppard is a great fit. An elite shooter and electric off-ball defender would slide perfectly into the Rockets long, athletic, switchable crop of upside wings.
- San Antonio Spurs: Zaccharie Risacher has been floated as a top-two pick thus far, but I see him sliding back a bit on draft night. He’s a long, athletic three-and-D wing, but with limited offensive creation, I don’t see how he can be taken that high. The French connection in San Antonio plays, and four seems like a much more reasonable landing spot for a projected high-level role player.
- Detroit Pistons: Another team that could look to swap a high pick for immediate impact, the Pistons could end up with Matas Buzelis to compliment their young core. If the shooting comes around, he would be a nice fit on the wing next to Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Ausar Thompson.
- Charlotte Hornets: I’m a big Stephon Castle fan and could see him going as high as two, but with rumors of him resisting teams who already have a point guard, he may slide even further than six. But the fit between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller would be ideal as he can run some offense while Ball plays off-guard (or is inevitably injured), while providing elite defense and versatility at the two.
- Portland Trail Blazers: With Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe locked into the Blazers backcourt, they’ll look to add some youth at the wing behind Jerami Grant. Williams is raw, but should impact the defensive end right away and slide into a starting role when Grant is eventually moved.
- San Antonio Spurs: Having gone a “safer” route with their fourth pick, the Spurs can afford to take a swing on one of the most electric scorers in this draft class. They need a point guard to set up the rest of the offense and Rob Dillingham’s defensive question marks will be offset by Victor Wembanyama behind him.
- Memphis Grizzlies: The floor for Donovan Clingan is said to be the seventh pick, but the fit in Memphis makes the most sense. Maybe the Grizzlies have to move up to get their center of the future, who compliments Jaren Jackson perfectly.
- Utah Jazz: My number two prospect falls to the ever-patient Jazz at 10. Topic may miss all of his first season, but that’s OK with Utah, who is prioritizing long-term success over Play-In berths. Topic has a chance to be a stud and fits well next to Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler.
- Chicago Bulls: Rumor has it, the Bulls have promised Carter if he is available at 11. Though teams like the Memphis Grizzlies have also expressed interest, the back end of the lottery has become a reasonable landing spot as Carter rises late in the pre-draft process, so I’m locking him in with the Bulls here.
Following a breakout junior season at Providence in which Carter averaged 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists, the son of former NBA player Anthony Carter, measured 6’2.25″ with a 6’8.75″ wingspan and a 42 inch vertical during May’s NBA Draft Combine.
At least initially, Carter projects to be more of a three-and-D guard rather than the high-usage, ball-dominant initiator he was for Providence. He’s a dogged competitor, one of the best rebounders in the class, bigs included, and generates a ton of blocks and steals. Though he struggled as a shooter his first two College seasons, he developed a high-level three-point shot his junior year, taking 6.8 three-point attempts per game and making 37.7 percent of them.
At 22.3 years old on draft night, he may not have All-Star equity, but it’s good to know he has experience scoring with the ball in his hands, shooting over screens and drawing fouls at the basket (5.2 free throw attempts per game his junior year).
Carter is the kind of player every team should want in their backcourt rotation, but he’s not the engine of a high-level offense just yet. The Bulls have a crowded backcourt, and Carter has some duplicative skills with Ayo Dosunmu, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball. Perhaps selecting him portends a move or two to unclog the guard rotation and fill some other gaps on the roster.
[Related: 6 options for the Chicago Bulls with the 11th pick in the Draft] - Oklahoma City Thunder: Everyone wants the Thunder to push their chips in, but I don’t think that’s how they want to operate. They’ll have to pay their top three guys eventually, so it makes more sense to continue to stock their coffers with upside plays on rookie deals to keep the machine churning. Tidjane Salaun is as much of a swing as they can take here.
- Sacramento Kings: Factoring in Malik Monk’s Free Agency, Kevin Huerter’s bizarre fall off and Harrison Barnes’ age-related decline, Knecht is a home run for the Kings. His scoring, off-ball shooting and NBA readiness make all the sense in the world for a Kings team that wants to get back in the Playoffs.
- Trail Blazers: Tyler Smith is another nice forward fit for the Blazers. His floor spacing and rim protection abilities compliment Williams well and provide support for their crop of guards.
Best fits the rest of the way
15: Miami Heat: Isaiah Collier was one of the top recruits in the class, but seems to have fallen down draft boards after a rough Freshman season at USC. It would be perfectly Heat to develop him into the star version of himself. He could end up being the best pick in this draft.
17: Los Angeles Lakers: Zach Edey and the Lakers are a perfect pair. Edey will be able to handle the limelight with ease, allow Anthony Davis to play some more power forward and offer star potential if everything clicks.
19: Toronto Raptors: Kel’el Ware is going to be really good. He adds athleticism, rim protection, and vertical spacing with the potential to be a reliable three-point shooter. He fits the Raptors physical profile and has time to develop behind Jakob Poeltl.
22: Phoenix Suns: I imagine the Suns will move this pick, but if they don’t Kyle Filipowski is the perfect big for them. He can operate as an offensive hub, space the floor and cover up some things defensively without demanding too much next to the Suns’ star trio. This would allow the Suns to move Jusuf Nurkic for a veteran guard or wing who fits the group better.
26: Wizards: With their second pick in the first round, Washington is still looking at upside and Carlton ‘Bub’ Carrington has a chance to be a special offensive player.
