Bears vs. Commanders predictions: Is Chicago's defense ready for Marcus Mariota?

It’s pretty popular to frame Sunday afternoon’s matchup as “Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels“. But Daniels is a game-time decision, and Caleb’s only opponent on Sunday is the Washington Commanders’ defense.

As Rome Odunze said on Wednesday, Jayden Daniels isn’t lining up at safety against the Bears. It probably wouldn’t hurt Washington’s defense if he did.

The Commanders’ secondary, led by second-round rookie Mike Sainristil out of Michigan, has allowed the third-highest passer rating this season through seven weeks – 107.4. The only teams worse? Carolina and Jacksonville. Caleb Williams posted a 126.2 against the Panthers in Week 5 and a 124.4 against the Jaguars in London in Week 6.

As for Chicago’s defense, coordinator Eric Washington didn’t seem too concerned by Washington’s uncertain quarterback situation. The team won’t have Jaquan Brisker (concussion) and Kyler Gordon (hamstring) against Daniels or backup quarterback Marcus Mariota, but Chicago has handled various injuries to the secondary well this season and has the best passer rating allowed this season – 72.8.

Whether it’s Marcus Mariota or Jayden Daniels, the goals are the same: pressure the quarterback, force mistakes, and set up your offense with premiere field position.

On Wednesday, Matt Eberflus complimented backup quarterback Tyson Bagent’s ability to give the Bears several different looks with the scout team offense. Bagent can emulate Daniels and Mariota, and it helps that the two quarterbacks have similar skill sets.

Onto Week 8 with a shot at 5-2 regardless of who’s taking snaps for Washington.

Adam Hoge (4-2) | Bears 23, Commanders 20

My biggest concern about the Bears in this game is the slow starts they keep getting off to. If that continues on Sunday, this will probably be a game they need to grind out in the fourth quarter. But if they’re able to fix their first quarter woes — only one first quarter touchdown all season — it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bears cruise to a relatively comfortable two-score win.

🔎 GO DEEPER | Check out Adam Hoge’s latest ‘Bears Things’ newsletter on the buzz surrounding Caleb Williams and the Bears heading into Sunday’s showdown.

Nicholas Moreano (5-1) | Bears 27, Commanders 17

Regardless of who plays quarterback for the Commanders on Sunday, I like the Bears in this matchup. The Bears’ defense must play disciplined and trust their eyes with all the movement Kliff Kingsbury utilizes on any given play. The Bears’ offensive line will have to keep pass rushers Dante Fowler Jr. and Frankie Luvu away from Caleb Williams, and if they can do that, there are plenty of opportunities to be had against a Commanders defense that is ranked 29th in the league in red-zone efficiency.

📖 READ | Nicholas Moreano’s latest column with insight from Rome Odunze, Gervon Dexter, Teven Jenkins and Roschon Johnson on the Bears’ big win in London.

Mark Carman (6-0) | Commanders 27, Bears 26

This is a tough one. Can Marcus Mariota be close to Jayden Daniels? Last week, the answer was yes against a bad Panthers defense. Washington has yet to face a defense the caliber of these Bears. There are reasons for optimism. The flow will be better, but the Bears give up a little too much.

Corey Wootton (5-1) | Bears 28, Commanders 17

Jayden Daniels is likely to be out. The Bears start slow after the bye week but finish strong with another solid defensive performance and connect to their weapons offensively in the second half to close the game out.

Greg Braggs Jr. (5-1) | Bears 24, Commanders 20

One on side of the battle, both teams are dealing with injuries. Washington Commanders QB (Jayden Daniels) vs Bears secondary (Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon). Feels like a wash in terms of who has the advantage there. I think the Commanders, regardless of the QB, will be able to move the ball. The question is, how much can they take advantage in the red zone? The Bears defense held true to the “bend, don’t break” formula in London. With a new or even injured QB for Washington, it’ll make it difficult to find their groove to consistently get touchdowns; not field goals. That being said, the Commanders have a potent rushing attack and the Bears’ linebackers must stay disciplined to avoid getting gashed.

The other side of the battle seems to be straight up. Bears offense vs Commanders defense. And that is where I think the Bears can find the edge. The Commanders’ secondary is vulnerable in my opinion. Caleb Williams has started to find his groove coming off a four-touchdown performance in London. Now with a bye week to look over what they did right and what they did wrong, I think the Bears’ offense is ready to take another step forward. A win on the road vs a playoff-caliber team would be just that.

Patrick Norton (3-3) | Bears 31, Commanders 13

I’m aware of the trend that Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses start to falter around the Week 8 or 9 mark in a season. But that’s not why I’m confident in the Bears’ defense this week. Getting Tyrique Stevenson back is a huge boost to the secondary, and Elijah Hicks held his own against the Jaguars in London. It won’t be easy, but I can’t help but like the trajectory of the Bears right now. They’re feeling it. They’re loose. But they’re always focused on what’s next. Caleb looks solid, improves his deep-ball accuracy, and the defense gets in the endzone.

Shoutout to Pete at Halas Hall. He greeted me on Thursday looking for a score prediction, so I told him 31-13. He looked at me like I was insane, but shared his: 30-21, Bears.

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Super Producer Stephen Nicholas (3-0) | Bears 30, Commanders 17

Is Jayden Daniels going to play? Why risk it? Marcus Mariota gets the start but is rudely welcomed by Montez Sweat, who gets 2 sacks in his return to Washington. On offense, it’s the DJ Moore game. He had a 58-yard grab against CB Benjamin St. Juste on the opening drive last year. This year, he wins that matchup all game long. 4th-straight win!

Kevin Kaduk (5-1) | Bears 24, Commanders 13

I’m a little worried about the layoff since London — which seems like almost a month now — but hopefully it was a time for the Bears to get rested and ready after a long camp and busy start to the season. The Bears defense is the best unit coming to the game and I think they get the job done as the winning streak runs to four.