Get hot at the right time. That’s some portion of the battle. On paper, the Cubs‘ front office has done as many things as possible to field a playoff team, perhaps even one that’s good enough to compete for a World Series title, but the difference between celebrating in October and going home emptyhanded is often whether a team is hot or not during those few weeks in the fall.
Based on how the Cubs finished August and have started September, it’s fair to say they have spoiled a lot of golden opportunities.
They went 2-4 (and got walked off three times) on a road trip through Seattle and Arizona last week and then came home and dropped two games out of three to the Reds at Wrigley over the weekend. The Cubs have been a streaky team all season; they have two ten-game winning streaks and a ten-game losing streak this season, and although they aren’t stacking losses in a row the past few weeks, the Cubs also haven’t done anything to gain ground in their division or the wild card race.
“It’s so cliche, but it’s just game to game. Playing well and playing consistently,” team president Jed Hoyer told reporters on Tuesday. “Obviously we’ve had some series recently that we’ve struggled. It’s just more getting back to being consistent, winning series. We can’t control anything other than the team we’re playing tonight. We have to play well consistently. I think that’s what has my attention the most.
“We’ve done that for large periods of the season. This late-August period wasn’t our strongest and it’s getting back to where we were at the beginning of August.”
The early-August Cubs racked up series wins against the Dodgers, Royals, Nationals, and White Sox. They hit a record 62 homers last month. That version of the team looked like one that could steamroll through the playoffs.
The Cubs came into September with a clear objective: Take advantage of seven head-to-head games against the Brewers and give themselves a puncher’s chance at winning the division. And if not that, hold onto the top wild card spot and secure a playoff series at Wrigley Field.
But instead, they have been plagued by a familiar problem. Poor pitching. The bullpen squandered a 3-0 lead in Tuesday night’s game against the Brewers, and the next night starter David Peterson couldn’t handle the Brewers offense, giving up six runs in under four innings.
That kind of outing from Peterson is especially painful when it comes opposite a night when the Cubs offense scored five runs against Jacob Misiorowski in the first two innings. At a time when the Cubs are still scoring plenty of runs — they hit a National League record 62 home runs in August — and playing good defense despite not having Dansby Swanson, losing it on the mound is especially costly.
“You try to figure out how are we going to be our best team, and it’s with these guys pitching well,” manager Craig Counsell said. “The way to do that is to get them back out there and have them pitch again. You’re [going to have times] when you get beat. And it’s no fun, and it stinks, but you got to go out there.
“If you’re not confident, that’s how you get your confidence back. If you’re struggling with something, that’s how you find it. You find it out there on the field when the competition’s going on and the other side’s trying to get you. These are guys that we count on, and we need them, and the best way for us to be the best team is to get them back out there.”
Jacob Webb is one of the guys in need of a few positive outings. He gave up multiple walk-off hits during the last road trip, and Webb had a chance to keep it a two-run game on Wednesday. But a Christian Yelich comebacker that struck Webb’s forearm in the ninth inning led to two more Brewers runs and might mean Webb is on the injured list soon.
Counsell said that x-rays on Webb’s arm were negative, but there was a sizable welt right after he got hit, so it seems fairly likely that the reliever hits the IL this week.
“It sucks,” said Alex Bregman, who went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and a two-RBI single on Wednesday. “Obviously we hope we can get him back really soon.”
Though Webb has struggled of late, the runs he allowed on the road against the Mariners on August 22 were the first he’d given up since June 20. He very much has the potential to be a key part of a playoff bullpen.
Along with him, the Cubs need Daniel Palencia to return to something like the form he showed in spurts last season. With his triple-digit fastball, Palencia could be the kind of ninth-inning guy who allows Counsell to set up the rest of his bullpen to lead up to him.
But Palencia has been injured for most of the season, and since returning on August 21, he has given up runs in four of his five appearances, including Wednesday against the Brewers.
“We need [Palencia]. The results have not been good, and the best thing we can do is get him back [and] get him out there as much as we can,” Counsell said. “We need our bullpen guys to get outs, and [Palencia] is one of the key guys we need to get going, so we’re going to keep putting him out there.”
Wednesday’s 9-5 loss means, at best, that the Cubs can split this weeks’ four game series with Milwaukee. That would mean they’ve gained no ground in the division while at the same time giving up the top wild card spot to the Phillies. Despite losing 1-0 to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, Philadelphia has a half game lead over the Cubs.
Leapfrogging the Brewers for the division lead was always a low-probability outcome, and if anything, the past two nights have shown why Milwaukee is the class of the National League. Still, the Cubs had a real opportunity to give themselves a chance this week, and they didn’t take advantage of it. But at the same time, the bigger issue might be losing the top wild card spot. Three games at Wrigley Field look a lot different than three games in Philadelphia in October.
