There’s a possible scenario where Shota Imanaga is not pitching for the Cubs this season. If he had not accepted their $22 million qualifying offer last November, there’s also a possible scenario where the Cubs are not sitting in first place in the National League Central at this point in the year. Especially in a division where, going into Saturday’s games, every team had a winning record.

With his seven scoreless innings in Saturday’s 2-0 win over the Diamondbacks, Imanaga has a 2.40 ERA and four quality starts in seven outings thus far this season. He has established himself as the anchor in the Cubs rotation.

“He’s pitching at a really high level, and he’s executing at a really high level,” manager Craig Counsell said.

Imanaga’s struggles in the second half of 2025 left a lot of Cubs fans feeling content with the possibility of his tenure with the team ending. After last year’s All-Star break, Imanaga posted a 4.70 ERA and gave up almost twice as many home runs as he had in the first half of the season.

The postseason was even worse; Counsell used an opener for Imanaga in game two of the wild card series, and Imanaga gave up four runs in 2 2/3 innings in his one start against the Brewers in the division series. With an envisioned 2026 rotation that was expected to have Cade Horton and Justin Steele returning sometime in May, Imanaga’s importance to that group seemed to have diminished almost entirely.

Enough so that plenty of Cubs fans were fine with the prospect of Imanaga not taking the qualifying offer from the Cubs. Imanaga’s masterful pitching in 2024 and the first half of last year got pushed out of a lot of people’s memories by the way his 2025 campaign ended.

“Thankfully, the right people didn’t forget,” Counsell said.

Namely, Imanaga himself. He isn’t one to blame injury for poor performance, but Imanaga strained his left hamstring on May 5 of last year, and from the point when he returned in late June to the end of the season, his ERA went from 2.54 to 3.73.

Seven starts into his 2026 season, Imanaga looks very much like he has returned to form, like he is again the guy who carved up opposing hitters two seasons ago. But for Imanaga, his performance this year is more than just trying to get back to his old self.

“Looking at myself, I don’t think I’m a final product yet,” Imanaga said via team interpreter Edwin Stanberry. “Each year there’s room to evolve and become a better pitcher. Looking back at my 11-year professional career up to now, I think very differently. Every year [I’m] trying to get better, and the next game is the most important game.”

Imanaga’s return to form and evolution in 2026 has played a significant role in the Cubs’ 21-12 record through their first 33 games. They’ve withstood a host of injuries, particularly to the pitching staff, thanks in part to guys like Colin Rea and Javier Assad stepping up, but also because Imanaga is pitching like the guy who garnered rookie of the year speculation in 2024.

In seven innings on Saturday, Imanaga gave up just one extra-base hit and gave up his first walk with two outs in the seventh inning. He commanded the zone against the Diamondbacks and generated a lot of low-quality contact. And on the pitches the Arizona batters were able to square up to any degree, Imanaga had his defense behind him.

“I’m always pitching out there know that if there’s a ball hit behind me, it’s going to be an out,” Imanaga said. “Every time I’m out there and they hit the ball, knowing that there’s a chance for that to be an out, I think it’s very reassuring.”

On Saturday, shortstop Dansby Swanson recorded nine defensive assists, including a spinning web gem in the sixth inning.

“His ability to find first base there and make a strong throw, I’ve seen so many of those plays from him over the years, and it never ceases to amaze me,” Ian Happ said.

Happ more or less was the Cubs offense on Saturday — he came a single shy of the cycle and was involved in both the runs they scored — and with the kind of defense they played behind Imanaga and then Ben Brown during his two-inning save, a pair of runs was enough.

Imanaga isn’t alone in feeling reassured by the Cubs defense. Fittingly, the defenders accepted the team Gold Glove award and three individual Gold Gloves before Saturday’s game. And in the same way that pitchers feel at ease because of the defense behind them, that group plays with a sense of shared purpose knowing that their pitchers are going to attack the zone with confidence.

That approach shines in a game like Saturday’s, when there’s dazzling glovework paired with pitchers commanding the strike zone. Between Imanaga and Brown, they issued just one walk against the Diamondbacks. In 2025, the Cubs’ pitching staff had the least number of walks — by 30 — and they have the third-lowest total this season.

“That gives our pitching staff a ton of confidence,” Happ said. “That’s our job. We’re behind them, and we’re going to make a bunch of plays. I think that we’ve iterated that to them; we’ve told guys, ‘You’re in the zone, we’ll take care of you.’ And I think when you watch us play baseball, that’s very true.”

Imanaga’s Achilles Heel is when he pitches to contact that his defense can’t make plays on. He gave up 31 home runs in 2025, which put him in a tie with Zac Gallen for the third-highest in baseball. That statistic gets even more distressing when you consider Imanaga threw 48 fewer innings than Gallen last year. The good news is, Imanaga has given up just three homers so far this season. If he stays at his current rate, Imanaga could go from among the worst in the league in giving up longballs to among the best.

That flip might be one of the latest moves in his evolution. Imanaga said on Saturday that, after two seasons with the Cubs, he’s getting a handle of the Wrigley winds.

“Starting this year, knowing the uniqueness of the ballpark and how the wind plays a role, I do keep that in mind,” Imanaga said. “Like today, with the wind blowing from right to left, [against] a right-handed hitter not trying to give up any damage to the pull side in the air because then there’s a chance that could go out. And then with the lefties, just being more aggressive in the zone.”

Imanaga isn’t known as the “throwing philosopher” for nothing. If he’s taking two years of experience at Wrigley Field and using that knowledge to make adjustments, his 2026 season could be more than just getting back to his old self.