Cubs Postseason: Trouble comes early, Cubs drop NLDS Game 1

MILWAUKEE — It was clear from the first inning on Saturday that Game 1 of the division series against Milwaukee was not going to go the Cubs‘ way. Starting pitcher Matt Boyd was hittable early; he gave up back-to-back-to-back doubles to erase the 1-0 lead the Cubs got in the top half of the inning on Michael Busch’s leadoff homer, and things never got better from there.

The choice to go with Boyd for the first game of this series was a curious one. Boyd was on short rest, having pitched on Tuesday in the first game of the wild card series against the Padres, but Cubs manager Craig Counsell was confident going into Saturday’s game that Boyd was ready to go.

“Really since Matthew [Boyd] came out of — probably since Matthew got to the dugout in Game 1, he was thinking about pitching this game,” Counsell said. “I think we were thinking about him pitching this game. That’s kind of how this all went down.”

The belief in Boyd’s readiness came in part from how short his wild card Game 1 outing was, Counsell said. Had Boyd thrown more pitches or gone deeper into that game on Tuesday, he would not have been an option to start off the division series. Boyd, too, affirmed that he felt sufficiently recovered to go against the Brewers Saturday and that his rough outing had more to do with catching too much of the plate with his pitches.

“Put it a few more inches one way, that’s just the nature of it,” Boyd said. “They just stacked them up, and that’s on me. They had a good approach, and I’ll be ready for the next one.”

To some degree, Boyd — and then Michael Soroka, who came in to relieve him in the first inning — ran into some bad luck. The Brewers got a lot of hits, but most of them were on low exit velocity balls in play. Nico Hoerner made an uncharacteristic error in the first inning, but there were also several balls in play that just found the right spot. There’s only so much Boyd could have done about that.

There’s also the reality that Counsell didn’t have much to choose from for his NLDS Game 1 starter. Because Javier Assad was left off of the division series roster — a choice Counsell said was between Assad and Ben Brown, with the latter getting the nod because of his strikeout ability — Colin Rea was the only other realistic option for Saturday. But he pitched 1 2/3 innings in Game 2 of the wild card series, so running him out there against the Brewers on Saturday would have been just as much of a question mark as Boyd. The absence of Cade Horton looms large over the division series because guys like Boyd and probably Jameson Taillon might have to pitch on short rest more than once if the Cubs are able to extend the division series to the full five games, and especially if the Cubs get through this round and advance to the championship series.

The three games it took to get to the division series also took a toll on the pitching staff. Counsell said before Game 1 that his pitching options to start the series were somewhat limited because of how he had to use his staff to beat the Padres. But the good news is that the built-in off days in the division series should allow for a reset to the Cubs’ pitching staff.

“The off-days do change bullpen usage a thousand percent. They do,” Counsell said. “There’s three off-days in a five-game series. That changes what a reliever can do, no question about it. It changes, like, who your starters are going to be for the series.”

There are a few good things worth pointing out about Game 1. First, although taking both of the first two games of the series in Milwaukee is the ideal, the more practical expectation is to win one of them, setting the Cubs up to do what they need to to finish the series at home in Games 3 and 4 at Wrigley Field. Because Saturday’s game went so poorly so quickly, it is presumably easy to turn the page quickly and start thinking about the second game of the series on Monday.

And second, the Cubs won the wild card series despite not scoring in bunches like they were in the first few months of the season. In Saturday’s game, there were some glimmers of hope on that front: Busch continued to look like the leadoff hitter the Cubs need, Ian Happ homered in the sixth inning after struggling mightily at the plate in the first two games of the wild card, and Matt Shaw put together multiple quality at-bats against a very tough Brewers starter in Freddy Peralta.

Lastly, and maybe it’s a small thing, but like the Cubs and Horton, the Brewers are without Brandon Woodruff for this series, so the offense can start responding in Games 2 and 3. They ranked fifth in baseball in runs scored during the regular season, and home runs were a major contributor, but they had periods when they needed to find different ways to score.

“Versatility is a big part of it,” Nico Hoerner said. “We’ve had stretches of the season where we straight-up out-slugged teams and that’s a really simple way of winning, and then there’s days where that doesn’t show up as much and you have the ability to score with your legs or contact or situational hitting, and I think in the playoffs
you’re going to be asked to do all sorts of types of winning.”

One way to get the Cubs offense clicking like Milwaukee did in Game 1 would be to focus on plate discipline. They are hitting home runs — the three on Saturday made for six this postseason so far — but all of them have been solo shots. The Cubs are not getting traffic on the basepaths and thus limiting their chances to score in bunches because they are striking out far too often. Through the first four games of these playoffs, the Cubs have 47 strikeouts to just 6 walks. Shifting that ratio would go a long way toward increasing the run scoring opportunities.

Looking ahead to Monday, Counsell will have to make a decision about who the Cubs go to for the Game 2 starter. There are a few options, but each one comes with question marks: Shota Imanaga would be the logical choice based on the order of the rotation Counsell has used lately, but he is better at Wrigley Field and has been prone to the longball lately, so when they use him might have more to do with finding the right game to limit the home run damage. Jameson Taillon has looked brilliant lately; he tossed four scoreless innings in Game 3 of the wild card series and had a 1.54 ERA in four September starts, but he would also be going on short rest like Boyd did on Saturday. The third option is Rea, who had a 2.63 ERA in September, but the most advantageous role for him might be entering games after the starter to give some longevity for the rest of the bullpen.

Whichever option Counsell goes with, the Cubs still have to win Game 2 on Monday in order to have a realistic shot at winning the division series. A split in Milwaukee before returning to Wrigley Field for Games 3 and 4 still puts the Cubs in a comfortable spot to move on to the next round.