Bulls have a chance to advance in the NBA Cup, but at what cost?

The Chicago Bulls got their second win in the NBA Cup tournament on Tuesday against the Washington Wizards with a 127-108 win.

Moving to 2-1 in the group stage, the Bulls are now in first place in Group C with a +15 point differential.

Having beaten them head-to-head, the Bulls own the tiebreaker over the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks, without Trae Young, managed to beat the Boston Celtics, so they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Boston despite all three teams having the same record.

In order for the Bulls to be able to move onto Las Vegas for the NBA Cup Knockout Round on December 10th and 11th, some things will need to go right for them.

First, they’ll need to unseat the Celtics who are 15-3 with a +12.3 point differential coming off their NBA Championship. They’ve just gotten Kristaps Porzingis back, making that challenge even more daunting.

Additionally, they’ll need the Cavaliers to lose one of their final two Cup games, against the Hawks and Wizards. Unlikely considering the Cavs are 17-1 with a +12.9 net rating — even better than the champs.

Even if the Bulls beat the Celtics and the Cavs fall to the Hawks or Wizards, the Bulls could still win the group if their point differential is greater than the Cavs. Through their first two games, the Cavs are 1-1, having lost to the Celtics. Their plus-minus is +15, same as the Bulls.

There is also the Wild Card path. Even if the Bulls end up second in the group, they could make the Knockout Round if they own the best record of the Eastern Conference teams that finish second in their groups. In that case, they would need a few losses from the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons to get the nod.

Winning at what cost?

Some may feel it’s too early in the season to have the tanking discussion, but with this win, the Bulls move 8-11 and 9th in the Eastern Conference standings. 5-5 in their last ten games, they’ve already banked nearly a third of the 27.5 wins the Las Vegas sportsbooks projected for them prior to the season. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects them to finish as the seventh seed in the East with a record of 38.6 wins and 43.4 losses.

The Bulls are better than we thought, and too good for their own good.

Last season, the Atlanta Hawks finished 10th in the tankathon standings with 36 wins. But with this year’s draft prize being Cooper Flagg, an upgrade over Zaccharie Risacher, more teams will be entering the race to the bottom, making it that much more competitive.

Not only are the Bulls hurting their chances of landing the franchise changing player they so desperately need, they’re also putting themselves in prime position to lose their pick to the San Antonio Spurs, which conveys if it falls between 11-30.

If the Bulls finish 10th in the Tankathon standings, where they currently reside, they’ll have nearly a 20 percent chance to lose their pick, much greater than the combined 16.9 percent chance they’d have to climb into the top-four.

The Bulls are playing with fire. Maybe they can eventually move off their veteran pieces, who have played well. But their contracts remain burdensome. Regardless, the more they win now, the more egregiously they’ll have to tank later on in the season.

The fine line they are walking is nice in theory; re-tool around young players, show off the vets and rebuild without tanking. But there is a cost to everything. This one foot in, one foot out plan may work, but the odds of success are low at their current spot in the standings.

As they crystalize as a bottom 6-12 team (instead of bottom 1-5), more and more outcomes emerge that lead them back to mediocrity. They’ll be praying for luck either way, but throwing away extra lottery tickets (in this case, ping pong ball combinations) in exchange for a few November wins is a tradeoff that just doesn’t seem worthwhile.

— Up next: The Bulls head to Orlando to face the Magic before getting Thanksgiving off. They wrap up their final NBA Cup game on Friday at the United Center against the NBA Champion Celtics.

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