Will Jed Hoyer boost the Cubs' offense with a big trade?

Let’s be clear here: The offense is not the main reason the Chicago Cubs got blown out 11-1 to open this weekend series with the New York Mets. Their opponents scoring 11 times in the first four innings means it would’ve been tough for the lineup to keep up anyway.

That doesn’t mean the offense was good. After loading the bases to start the bottom of the first (while already trailing by three), Christopher Morel grounded into a double play and Ian Happ struck out, limiting the Cubs to just one run in that inning.

They ultimately went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position, and that one hit didn’t even bring a runner home. They scored their one run on five hits and three walks, so it’s not like the pitching staff let the lineup down.

Regardless, the question in the headline isn’t based on one game of offensive struggles.

It’s been a long time since the Cubs were actually producing consistently good results at the plate. Everyone who’s watched this team — including president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer — has seen that.

“Collectively, this group has kind of failed to produce for the last 46 games,” Hoyer said Monday, before the start of the series against the San Francisco Giants. “We had a really good offense last year. We had a really good offense in April. Since then, we have not hit, period.”

Four games after Hoyer spoke, nothing’s really changed.

It’s now been 50 games since April 26, when they finished the day 17-9. Since then, they’ve gone 19-31 (36-40) and have fallen down the standings in both the division and the wild card race.

The offense has been the biggest issue during this ongoing stretch. Just take a look at some of the numbers from April 27 through Friday:

• No. 29 in runs scored (176)
• No. 25 in wRC+ (87)
• No. 29 in batting average (.218)
• No. 30 in OPS (.647)

It gets worse when you look at their numbers over that same timeframe with runners in scoring position:

• No. 29 in runs scored (126), despite having the 12th-most plate appearances with RISP
• No. 30 in wRC+ (63)
• No. 30 in batting average (.180, the only team below .200)
• No. 30 in OPS (.567, the only team below .600)

Even Wednesday against the Giants, in which the Cubs scored enough to escape a late rally with a 6-5 win and their first series victory in over a month, they went 3-for-15 with RISP and didn’t take advantage of a few chances to really put the game away.

The Cubs’ struggles with RISP, under the general umbrella of bad situational hitting, is what Hoyer said “probably keeps me up at night the most.” While he’s maintained the belief that those numbers will turn for the better, Hoyer can’t just wait around forever to see if they do.

There’s the July 30 trade deadline to think about. If the Cubs continue struggling for much longer, they might be approaching that date with even less of a clear path toward the playoffs. The worst-case scenario is they slump their way to a position where the front office doesn’t feel it’s worth it to make bigger additions.

It’s not quite at that breaking point yet, but when does Hoyer saying that mostly the same team scored the sixth-most runs last season not really mean anything anymore? When does his tune change from “this team can turn things around” to “this team needs help”?

“It’s a great question. It’s fair,” Hoyer said. “I mean, at some point, you are what your numbers say you are. I do think that, when I look at last season with a very similar group, when I look at April with a very similar group, when I look at our projections, all those things would tell us that this group should hit better.

“Talking about external things is fair. We talk about this every year. Every year, there’s questions earlier and earlier about when the trade market is open. I talk to teams every day — many teams every day — and the idea of making significant transactions in mid-June is unbelievably difficult, and at times just impossible, because teams aren’t going to do that to their own fan base.

“So, I just think that the focus has to be, how do we get these guys going? That’s the way we kind of treat every day here.”

While players like Michael Busch (133 wRC+ through Friday), Seiya Suzuki (124), Happ (118) and Cody Bellinger (114) are everyday hitters having solid seasons, those guys haven’t been able to carry the offense for a stretch at any point in the last eight weeks.

The Cubs don’t have that middle-of-the-order, superstar bat. It’s no easy task to go out and get one, for sure, but couldn’t adding one of those bats change the dynamic of a lineup that already features some talented hitters?

“I think theoretically. There’s no question that that guy impacts hitters above and below,” Hoyer said. “But the trade market’s not really open at this point in the summer. At this point, certainly, the answers have to come from within. So, the question in the theoretical or the actual, like, we’re not going to be able to add that bat today.”

OK, but in a month, would Hoyer focus on acquiring that kind of hitter if he becomes available?

“I think I would say we need to start hitting a lot better,” he said. “It’s been 46 games [entering Monday]. We need to start hitting as a group. The focus on the trade market, I understand it, but I think the answers have to be on the field for us to get where we need to go.”

That doesn’t inspire a ton of hope that Hoyer will add an impact bat, but he isn’t saying he won’t. If the Cubs can turn their season around and they get in position to really make a run, going big at the deadline isn’t out of the question.

But that’s still some time away. Making a blockbuster deal is tough right now because many teams aren’t looking to sell just yet. A lot of them are still in the wild card picture, and few are far enough out that they’re guaranteed sellers (and those that are would likely ask buyers to pay more of a premium right now anyway).

With over a month until the deadline, there’s still some time before all the sellers truly emerge. Hoyer should be scoping out the market in the meantime, but he understands that it isn’t heating up yet.

“To be very clear, when I say that the solutions are within, that does not mean I’m not on the phones all the time looking at possibilities,” Hoyer said. “I wouldn’t be doing my job if I wasn’t doing that. I’m also just realistic about what the trade market is and the opportunity. Yes, of course, if there was the right offensive player that could come in and could spark us, we would absolutely look into that. It’s just very difficult to find this time of year.”

With that knowledge, Hoyer is sort of in a position where he has to just be patient with the group. He has to keep believing in his players’ track records, especially those who’ve really struggled this year, until those offensive upgrades become available.

Does it make sense for Hoyer to start being bold this season, considering this trade deadline would be three years to the day that he dealt away the biggest pieces from the previous core? Absolutely.

Still, the impactful bats he could target haven’t really emerged yet with the playoff picture being what it is, and even then, there’s no guarantee the Cubs will get one of them. It’s pretty unlikely they get one anytime soon.

So, while Hoyer has to be looking at all possibilities between now and the deadline, it really is important that the current Cubs get the turnaround started themselves.

“This collective group has to figure this out,” Hoyer said. “That doesn’t mean there won’t be additions, but the answers have to come from within. There’s no reason to believe this group suddenly forgot how to hit, but certainly, it’s been a longer downspell than expected.

“I think everyone goes through ups and downs in a season. This is a much longer trough than we ever expected, and we have to get out of it. You can’t keep digging this hole.”

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